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Axios is launching a newsletter for internal and external communicators. Learn what's working, what's not and what's next with Axios Communicators, coming Thursday from Eleanor Hawkins.
:computer: Situational awareness: Facebook's annual diversity report says that offering remote work options helped the company retain and hire employees from underrepresented groups.
Today's newsletter is 1,163 words, a 4.5-minute read.
1 big thing: Why the metaverse won't be what we expect
Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Liveright, an imprint of W.W. Norton & Company
The metaverse is well worth building, even if we don't know exactly what will come of it, venture capitalist and tech evangelist Matthew Ball tells Axios' Stephen Totilo.
Why it matters: Part of getting ready for an epochal internet change is realizing that what we expect it to be is probably very wrong.
Smart construction will be required to deliver on a potential multitrillion-dollar virtual market that supporters predict will be as transformational as the internet itself.
Meta-what? Obligatory attempted definition, this time via Ball: The metaverse is a massive, interoperable 3D virtual world that is persistent (still there when you log off), synchronous (everyone experiences it the same way) and able to support an unlimited number of users with their own identities, virtual objects and access to payment systems.
Maybe it'll provide a new way to learn, work, shop, socialize and entertain.
But it won't necessarily take the shape now being promoted by Meta and other big companies.
What they're saying: "You see these examples like, well, what are we going to do in the metaverse? 'We're going to sit at a 3D conference table with VR glasses.' I'm pretty sure we're not going to do that," Ball says.
He says early internet pioneers couldn't have predicted Robinhood, Fortnite and Snapchat, and recalls that Apple used to think it was a good idea for the iPhone's note-taking app to resemble lined paper.
The smartest people really can't predict.
Ina's thought bubble: The tech industry has a long track record of developing powerful new platforms, but often fails to anticipate the most powerful uses for those platforms (both positive and negative).
And, as we've reported, the metaverse won't arrive years from now out of whole cloth. Instead, it's being built piece by piece, with some of the key enabling technologies already either on the market or cooking within the labs of tech giants.
Between the lines: In terms of where to look for a sense of what the metaverse could portend, Ball points to the video game industry, where Minecraft and Roblox have already emerged as popular virtual worlds.
He calls game developers "the world's leading experts" in building synchronous virtual online spaces, attracting millions of people to them and prioritizing having a good time inside.
The bottom line: The most impactful builders of all may not have even gotten started yet.
Often, the key uses for a technology emerge after it hits the market — consider Uber and other on-demand startups that grew once smartphones were ubiquitous.
"To some extent, we're constrained by the fact that most of the quote-unquote metaverse products of today are still created and imagined by those who long preceded it," Ball said.
The Russian hackers who breached dozens of U.S. government agencies in the 2020 SolarWinds incident are using a new technique involving Google Drive and Dropbox to break into diplomatic offices in other countries, as Axios' Sam Sabin reports.
Driving the news: Cozy Bear, the Russian state-sponsored hacking group, shared malware-infected files with foreign embassies in Brazil and Portugal in May using Dropbox or Google Drive storage, researchers at Palo Alto Networks said in a report Tuesday.
Right now, it's unclear whether the attacks succeeded.
Why it matters: The findings mark an expansion in Russian state hackers' abuse of cloud services as Russia's Ukraine invasion creates new concerns over their activity.
It's the first time Palo Alto Networks' researchers have spotted Cozy Bear targeting Google Drive specifically, and it builds on Cozy Bear's newer interest in abusing Dropbox tools.
Details: In the report, Palo Alto Networks' threat intelligence team says it tracked three known phishing attempts that relied on Dropbox and Google's cloud storage systems, two against embassies in Portugal and another in Brazil.
Cozy Bear hackers sent the embassies a phishing email disguised to look like a document containing the agenda for an upcoming meeting with a foreign ambassador.
If recipients clicked on the link, they'd be redirected to either Dropbox or Google Drive, where they'd download the file onto their devices.
Victims who opened that file would start a download onto their computers that gives hackers a backdoor onto the system — allowing them to launch malware at any moment.
Researchers also shared this information with both Google and Dropbox and said in the report that the two companies have blocked the activity.
The big picture: Russian nation-state hackers, or those working on behalf of government organizations, have been steadily finding new ways to break into cloud services as more companies adopted those tools during the pandemic.
In October, Microsoft warned that the same Russian hacking group had been targeting tech resellers and other service providers that "customize, deploy and manage" cloud services with the hopes of piggybacking to gain access to a company's cloud network.
Palo Alto Networks' report also comes as Western governments prepare for a possible onslaught of Russian cyberattacks in retaliation for their support of Ukraine.
3. Quick takes: Twitter bashes Musk's delay plea
1. Twitter on Mondayfiled its reply to Elon Musk's effort to delay the company's lawsuit against the billionaire, saying his request "fails at every level."
What's next: A Tuesday hearing at a Delaware Chancery Court will consider whether the trial should proceed in September, as Twitter has requested.
2. Twitter chose to label, but not take down, a pair of transphobic tweets from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) that misgendered Admiral Rachel Levine, used crude terms to describe gender reassignment surgery and misstated what constitutes gender-affirming care for minors.
Between the lines: While not unusual for Twitter, it highlights just how much elected officials can evade the platform's rules when using their official accounts.
A message from American Edge Project
Voters prioritize inflation over far-reaching tech regulation
A new midterm voter poll finds that regulating tech is not a top priority for voters.
Key number: 74% of voters agree that "breaking up U.S. tech companies will only hurt America's competitiveness on the global stage, at a time when our adversaries are becoming bolder."
Uber has settled with the Justice Department over claims it overcharged customers with disabilities. Uber will refund wait time fees for some customers with disabilities, among other stipulations.
Russia has fined Google $365 million for failing to remove YouTube videos with what it says is prohibited content. Google has already halted Russian operations and said its subsidiary there will file for bankruptcy. (The Verge)
DoorDash and GrubHub are dropping their suit over San Francisco's plan to cap delivery fees and pushing a compromise where restaurants can pay to improve their promotion in their apps. (SFist)
A law firm has filed a private antitrust lawsuit against Apple alleging that its Apple Pay overcharges credit card issuers, generating what the suit claims is $1 billion in illicit fees.
Slack is raising prices for paid users for the first time. (TechCrunch)
Speaking of Apple, it reportedly plans to slow growth and hiring in some parts of the company. (Bloomberg)
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Voters are focused on inflation — not breaking up tech
Midterm voters' top priorities for Congress are inflation (88%), national security (86%) and jobs (85%).
84% of voters agree "there are other, bigger problems facing the United States, we should not be focused on breaking up U.S. tech companies right now."
It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.
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There is a warm and positive atmosphere around that is perfect for improving the current state of your love life. The planetary energy enables you to get to know a certain person and to make quite a pleasant impression. Although you may not find yourself embroiled in a passionate relationship by this evening, you will certainly have made a very rewarding beginning. Things are looking up!
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Why it matters: The victory secured a spot in the 2024 Olympics and helped the U.S. get revenge on their neighbors to the north.
This was a rematch of the Olympic semifinal a year ago in Tokyo, which Canada won 1-0 on a late penalty.
That marked Canada's first win over the U.S. in 20 years, and they went on to win gold, while the Americans took bronze.
By the numbers: The USWNT has won 33 straight World Cup or Olympic qualifying matches, and it's been 4,274 days (!!!) since they've allowed a goal in CONCACAF play.
The big picture: America owns CONCACAF — that much is clear. But with international women's soccer tournaments taking place around the world this month, the USWNT is being judged on a global scale.
The Euro tournament, happening now in England, has shown just how talented the continent's best teams are as they battle it out in a field the U.S. simply can't get in CONCACAF.
ESPN recently ranked the world's 50 best women's soccer players, and the U.S. had six (down from 11 the year prior) and just one in the top 10 (down from three).
Looking ahead: With the next Women's World Cup almost exactly a year away, the gap that once existed between the U.S. and other top countries could be closing.
The backdrop: Soto's win came one day after reports surfaced that the Nationals are exploring trade possibilities for their generational superstar after he rejected a 15-year, $440 million extension.
A drama-filled month for the cellar-dwelling Nationals — who are also exploring a sale of the franchise — was briefly put on hold Monday night to marvel at moonshots.
But Soto ultimately wearing the crown certainly won't decrease the buzz surrounding him in Los Angeles, which he finds "uncomfortable."
Notes:
23 years old: Part of the reason why Soto is so valuable is that he's still just 23 somehow, which is the same age as some players in this year's Futures Game, which is designed to showcase elite prospects.
11,191 yards: Rodríguez put on a show with a total home run distance of 33,573 feet (~11,191 yards). That would make him the Seahawks all-time leading rusher, a title currently held by Shaun Alexander (9,429).
Streaming services are at a precarious point where they're squeezing both consumers' wallets and media companies' bottom lines, Axios' Tim Baysinger writes.
Driving the news: Disney is increasing the monthly price of ESPN+ by $3 ($6.99 to $9.99) starting in August. That's a 43% jump, making it Disney's second-most expensive streaming service behind Hulu's ad-free option.
State of play: Companies are trying to reach lofty profit deadlines after having bet the farm on streaming, and price hikes can help earnings.
Yes, but: Doing so while inflation presses its thumb on spending habits risks the loss of consumers who'd rather cancel than pay more.
The backdrop: For years, investors rewarded companies launching into streaming. But investor confidence has waned in 2022 amid stalled growth and, in some cases, declining subscribers.
Disney's direct-to-consumer segmenttook a $887 million operating loss last quarter, mostly due to increasing content budgets and the rights fees for live sports.
Meanwhile, regional sports networks are getting into streaming and charging higher prices compared to more general streamers, betting that sports-crazed fans are willing to fork over more money.
What to watch: The streaming industry will be holding its breath as Netflix kicks off another round of media earnings this afternoon, where it's expected to bleed another two million subscribers.
Netflix will join Disney+ later this year in launching a cheaper, advertiser-supported option as another way to wring streaming profits out of a slowing market.
Disney secured a record$9 billion in advertising commitments during its Upfront ad sales event this year, thanks in large part to the upcoming ad-supported tier.
💰 FYI: The price hike won't affect the cost of the "Disney Bundle," which looks like an even better deal now. Paying for Disney+, Hulu (with ads) and ESPN+ separately will be $24.97 per month, whereas the bundle costs $13.99.
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⚾️ Boras is everywhere: The top three picks in this year's MLB draft are all represented by superagent Scott Boras, who also reps the most wanted man in baseball: Juan Soto. It's Boras Corp's world, we're all just living in it.
🇷🇺 Daria's truth: Star Russian tennis player Daria Kasatkina says she's dating a woman. Her comments come as Russia considers tightening already strict restrictions on publicly discussing LGBTQ relationships.
🎓 NIL salary cap: Speaking at SEC Media Days, Ole Miss football coach Lane Kiffin said he thinks there should be an NIL salary cap to help even the playing field.
5. ⚾️ A new voice: Meet Joe Davis
Photo: Keith Birmingham/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images
For the first time since 2000, someone other than Joe Buck will call play-by-play for the MLB All-Star Game. His name is Joe Davis, and his voice is about to become much more familiar, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.
The big picture: When Buck moved to ESPN earlier this year, Davis replaced him as Fox's lead MLB commentator. Tonight's call will be his biggest assignment to date — until this fall's World Series.
The backdrop: Davis, 34, has worked his way up the ranks surprisingly fast, and Buck is neither the first nor biggest industry titan whose shoes he's filled. Those belong to Vin Scully.
Davis played QB at Beloit College in Wisconsin, a tiny D-III school whose less intensive athletics schedule allowed him to call basketball and baseball games the rest of the year.
After graduating in 2010, he became the voice of the Montgomery Biscuits (Rays Double-A). By 2014, he was calling football, basketball and baseball games for FS1.
In 2016, Davis became an alternate in the Dodgers' booth, and a year later he replaced Scully as the voice of the team. He was prepared, having studied story structure to help emulate Scully's style.
What they're saying: "It's just amazing, the little wrinkles he's always ready for, and it never feels scripted," Davis told NYT of Buck. "When the moment happens, he captions it … and gets out of the way."
The same has been said of Davis: "I was caught off guard by a young broadcaster who actually wasn't over-talking," Fox Sports exec Brad Zager said of the first time he heard Davis about a decade ago.
"He was ... letting the crowd be part of the broadcast. That's stuff you usually teach to people as they grow in this business — let the moment breathe, don't try to be the star — and he had it naturally."
Steeplechasers are no strangers to obstacles, but Monday's men's final at the World Championships presented a new one.
Whoopsies: In addition to the 28 barriers and seven water pits, runners had to avoid an oblivious cameraman who'd wandered onto the track.
The 15 men successfully swerved around him while he filmed the women's triple jump nearby.
Reigning Olympic champion Soufiane El Bakkali of Morocco emerged victorious.
7. 🌎 Photos from across the pond
Photo: Romina Amato/Red Bull via Getty Images
COPENHAGEN, Denmark — The Red Bull Cliff Diving World Series arrived in the Danish capital this past weekend, where divers jumped off the roof of the city's opera house. Casual!
The thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. Photo: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty Images
MANCHESTER, England — Belgium beat Italy, 1-0, on Monday to knock the Azzurri out of the 2022 Women's Euro and reach the knockout stages of a major tournament for the first time.
What's next: The quarterfinals begin tomorrow. See slate.
Thanks for voting. We'll share the results tomorrow.
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U.K. hits record-breaking 40 degrees Celsius as heat wave intensifies
Driving the news: The U.K. broke its national record for the highest temperature ever recorded, with a provisional reading of 104.36 degrees Fahrenheit (40.2 degrees Celsius) at London's Heathrow Airport.
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Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) departs a vote at the U.S. Capitol July 18, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO) | Francis Chung/POLITICO
A MANCHIN-FLAVORED PILL TO SWALLOW — That's what some Democrats are choking down this week.
Democrats are getting a dose of reality and coming to terms with the idea that even a pared down party-line climate and tax bill is looking unlikely, leaving just a sliver of their original legislative agenda on the table: a narrow health care bill.
Meanwhile, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) swears he hasn't walked away: "I haven't walked away from anything. And inflation is my greatest concern because of how it has affected my state and all over this country, and that's all I have to say. … I don't know what tomorrow brings."
Some Democrats want to keep negotiating climate proposals with the key centrist, who has to okay anything they want to move by party-line vote. But they are ready to vote on lowering prescription drug costs and health care premiums.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.): "Continuing to negotiate, it's sort of like: what would be your evidence that would lead to something positive? If you want to do that, that's fine. But let's go ahead. We should have voted on some of this months ago."
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) says his party has two options going forward: take a guaranteed agreement or wait for a better one. "I'd go with the former rather than the latter," he said Monday.
… BUT ABOUT THAT HEALTH CARE BILL — Republicans will be using all the tools in their toolbox to chip away at the health care package that Democrats hope to move using the complex budget reconciliation process, which allows them to pass it with a simple majority and circumvent the filibuster.
"We're going to fight as hard as we possibly can, and we're going to challenge as much as we believe is properly challengeable," said Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho, the top Republican on the Finance Committee, which is in charge of the policies that remain in the proposal.
Republicans are preparing their arguments to the Senate parliamentarian in an attempt to make even more provisions ineligible for inclusion under the reconciliation rules.
HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ROE BEING OVERTURNED? JOIN WOMEN RULE ON 7/21: Now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade , abortion policy is in the hands of the states and, ultimately, voters. Join POLITICO national political correspondent Elena Schneider for a Women Rule "ask me anything" conversation featuring a panel of reporters from our politics and health care teams who will answer your questions about how the court's decision could play out in different states, its impact on the midterms and what it means for reproductive rights in the U.S. going forward. SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS AND REGISTER HERE.
GOOD MORNING!Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, July 19.
MORE SPICE THAN A BUSHEL OF CRABS — Maryland holds the only primary contest of July today, with a hot contest for governor and a drama-rich Baltimore City State's Attorney race. But the congressional race to watch is for Maryland's 4th district, which is an open seat because Rep. Anthony G. Brown is running for state attorney general. There are nine candidates for the Democratic primary in the deep-blue district, but the race seems to be centered on former Rep. Donna Edwards and Glenn Ivey, a former state's attorney for Prince George's County, high-level Hill staffer and Justice Department official.
NOT OVER YET — "The Jan. 6 select committee once envisioned a single month packed with hearings. Then a fire hose of evidence came its way — and now its members have no interest in shutting or even slowing the spigot," write Kyle and Nicholas.
"As its summer hearings show some signs of chipping at Donald Trump's electoral appeal, select panel members describe Thursday's hearing as only the last in a series. Committee members, aides and allies are emboldened by the public reaction to the information they're unearthing about the former president's actions and say their full sprint will continue, even past November."
DESTINATION: INVESTIGATION— House Republicans, confident that they'll take control of the House and its oversight apparatus, are planning to go all-in on investigations of President Joe Biden's administration, from the Afghanistan withdrawal, to the formula shortage to the southern border and … you guessed it, Hunter Biden.
"I think it's really going to be focused on holding the Biden administration accountable and getting answers. … It is going to be a lot of intense oversight," Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), who is expected to be majority leader if the chamber flips, said in a brief interview with Jordain. Much more on Republican's plans to pounce on investigations: It's not just Hunter Biden: Prepare for a 2023 packed with House GOP investigations
KENTUCKY'S MEREDITH MELTDOWN— Remember that anti-abortion judicial nomination deal cooked up between President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)? The White House's plans to nominate Chad Meredith dissolved last week, with both McConnell and the administration blaming Kentucky's junior Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) for refusing to sign off.
Paul aired his side of the story on Monday, how the McConnell-Biden deal was secret and how it was "a little bit insulting" for him to learn about the nomination from an FBI background check.
"McConnell's to blame for tanking this because he tried to do it secretly, Democrats caught wind up in the state. And they also tried to do it secret[ly]" and go around McConnell's home state partner, Paul told reporters. "We never heard about it from McConnell's office. And his people simply said, 'you can't do this but we can.' You know, 'we're so powerful, we can do whatever we want.'" Burgess explores the longstanding odd-couple dynamic between Paul and McConnell… who are often not aligned, despite being in the same party and representing the same state. Read more: Rand lights into McConnell over 'secret' judicial deal
CHIPS PLUS… WHAT, EXACTLY?— A bipartisan group of senators met Monday night on the semiconductor chip and onetime China competition bill that the Senate could start procedural action on as soon as today. After "Endless Frontiers'' and "USICA," we're now talking about "CHIPS plus"... aka $52 billion in support for the semiconductor industry, plus…provisions that lawmakers are still hashing out.
"We've got a short amount of time to persuade people that there is more that has to be incorporated into the CHIP plus package as proposed," Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), an original co-sponsor of the competitiveness bill, told reporters after the meeting.
Young hopes to include the commerce and trade titles left over from the broader bill negotiations that have been largely scuttled, along with National Science Foundation funding. Young is trying to build a coalition to make the "plus" part of the package as robust as possible.
"He wants an outcome like everyone else in that room," Young said of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
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CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE— At least five Democratic members of congress will participate this afternoon in an act of civil disobedience on the Capitol steps in support of abortion rights and in protest of the overturning of Roe v. Wade : Reps. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.), Cori Bush (D-Mo.), Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), and Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) will join activists on the Capitol steps. These types of demonstrations have yielded arrests of both activists and lawmakers before and that could transpire again. The protest begins at 12:30 p.m. on the House steps.
MODCOM MARKUP— The House Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress meets today to approve a set of 29 recommendations for improving the operations of the House, with a focus from crisis planning to district office operations.
District Offices: Recommendations include giving constituents a choice in what happens with the records of their case, making WiFi available to district offices, and providing flexibility when federally declared disasters strike a district.
Capitol Campus: ModCom wants there to be alternative venues for hearings in different formats, more and better signage, and an app where members and staff can reserve any available space on Capitol Hill.
Legislative Process: They are hoping to establish a bill-tracking system and automate the system of finding cosponsors. They also want to exempt student loan repayments from maximum compensation, in order to retain staff.
Status Update: Close to 77 percent (110 of 142) of ModCom's previous recommendations have been implemented (or partially implemented or are "in progress.) Thirty-four have been fully implemented and 27 are approaching that mark.
MINIBUS ON THE MOVE — 190 amendments have been made in order for debate on the six-bill appropriations minibus, out of more than 600 originally filed. The measure includes half of the 12 annual funding bills: Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water, Transportation-HUD, Interior-Environment, Financial Services and Military Construction-VA. Note: Government funding runs out at midnight on Sept. 30, less than 80 days away.
LATE SHOW OFF THE HOOK— The U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia is declining to prosecute the case against nine staffers from "The Late Show With Stephen Colbert" who were arrested on "unlawful entry" charges on June 16. "We respect the decision that office has made," the Capitol Police said in a statement Monday evening.
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HUDDLE HOTDISH
New in town…Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) doesn't like the new furniture. There's a monstrous new set of cabinets in the Senate basement by the subway, installed exactly where Senate pages usually set up to track which senators have made their way to votes and who's lollygagging. Gone is the wobbly little table where Booker was known to perch to chat with the pages. Our own Marianne got an exclusive (forbidden?) peek inside. Heavy stanchions for cordoning off certain areas (usually the press) with velvet ropes are stored inside. Your Huddle host tweeted questions into the void, but the pages readily answered them: there's a cubby for the phone they use on the side of the cabinet.
"This is an outrage!" Booker shouted, with a smile, at the pages. "I'm gonna call my congressman."
The House convenes at 10 a.m. for legislative business
The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. with votes expected at 11:30 a.m. and a break for party lunches until 2:15 p.m., when another set of votes is expected.
AROUND THE HILL
10:15 a.m. Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) and Reps. Kathey Manning (D-N.C.) and David Cicilline (D-R.I) hold a press conference following the Democratic Caucus meeting (Studio A).
10:45 a.m. Scalise, GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Reps. Mario Diaz Balart (R-Fla.) and Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.) hold a press conference after the GOP Conference meeting (Studio A).
Noon Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) joins the Congressional Workers Union for a press conference (House Triangle).
2 p.m. Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans hold their separate post-policy lunch press conferences.
3 p.m. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) holds a pen-and-pad session with reporters (H-107).
TRIVIA
MONDAY'S WINNER:Leisel Bogan correctly answered that a parliamentarian has been appointed by the Speaker in every Congress since 1927. Of course there were plenty of parliamentary advisors before then.
TODAY'S QUESTION from Leisel: What was the first measure of the 66th Congress and who introduced it?
The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com.
GE announces plans for three industry leading companies: GE HealthCare, GE Vernova, and GE Aerospace. Each with an elevated vision to lead us into the future. This will be a new era of precision health & connected care, a cleaner future, and flight & defense, built off of a 130 year-old heritage of innovation. Continuing to build a world that works and ensuring our future does too. Learn more.
This is a powerful day for sharing ideas. A group of people talking out a problem will come up with a better solution than you could find by yourself. It is important to tell people what you want. Don't assume someone automatically knows what you need. Make clear, simple requests.
This is a powerful day for sharing ideas. A group of people talking out a problem will come up with a better solution than you could find by yourself. It is important to tell people what you want. Don't assume someone automatically knows what you need. Make clear, simple requests.
Are they lying or telling you the truth? Find out now with a live psychic reading.Chat online now.
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Good Tuesday morning, Illinois. Have we hit the lazy days of summer yet?
TOP TALKER
The practice of redlining ended more than 50 years ago, but its ramifications linger today and have contributed to the urban decay and Black flight from cities such as Chicago, Detroit and Philadelphia, according to new research by Maria Pappas' Cook County Treasurer's Office.
Redlining was the practice of denying home loans in minority neighborhoods that were branded a financial risk. The government practice benefited white middle-class homeowners while people of color were pushed into urban housing projects.
The new study finds correlations between today's "vast tracks" of vacant and abandoned properties in Chicago, Detroit and Philadelphia and areas the federal government once warned against mortgage lending.
Far-reaching effects: Redlining "thwarted generations of Blacks from obtaining generational wealth through homeownership," argues Pappas' office in its summary of the research.
Redlining's effects are seen today in high crime rates, abandoned properties, below-value real estate appraisals, regressive property taxation and in population decline, according to Pappas' researchers. "Hundreds of thousands of Blacks in recent decades have fled a number of cities, including Chicago," as a result, according to the country's researchers. POLITICO recently examined that phenomenon in Chicago.
Solutions : The Treasurer's Office has long criticized the Scavenger Sales program that auctions off distressed properties. With the study in hand, Pappas proposes a new program that puts properties back on the tax rolls quicker, and she wants to create a database documenting inventory of vacant land and abandoned properties.
THE BUZZ
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Chicago attorney Sam Roykois running for alderman in the 1st Ward. The seat is currently held by Ald. Daniel La Spata.
Royko is the youngest son of the late Sun-Times columnist Mike Royko and has been outspoken on safety issues in his ward.
"Last year, my girlfriend was carjacked. It was a traumatic experience. We decided to turn this difficult event into an opportunity to use our voices to improve the community," Royko said in a statement to Playbook announcing his bid for public office.
Royko worked with neighbors and community groups to create the Greater West Town Community Coalition. Joining the City Council would be the next step, he said.
Royko's roots in the ward run deep. "My father is from here; he grew up above the tavern his family operated at 2122 North Milwaukee Ave. I have lived in the community since 2015 in Noble Square and now West Town. … It is part of my history."
Have a news tip, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? I'd like to hear from you: skapos@politico.com
HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ROE BEING OVERTURNED? JOIN WOMEN RULE ON 7/21: Now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade , abortion policy is in the hands of the states and, ultimately, voters. Join POLITICO national political correspondent Elena Schneider for a Women Rule "ask me anything" conversation featuring a panel of reporters from our politics and health care teams who will answer your questions about how the court's decision could play out in different states, its impact on the midterms and what it means for reproductive rights in the U.S. going forward. SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS AND REGISTER HERE.
WHERE'S JB
No official public events.
WHERE'S LORI
At the Chicago Cultural Center at 1 p.m. along with first lady of Chicago Amy Eshleman to host a panel discussion panel on the 50th Anniversary of Title IX. Watch on the mayor's social media channels. ... At NBC Tower at 2:30 p.m. along with NASCAR leaders for an announcement. ... At the Chicago Cultural Center again at 5:30 p.m. for the Title IX Hero Awards Reception.
Where's Toni
No schedule provided.
TAKING NAMES
— Ethan Wolf, the deputy political director for Rep. Brad Schneider, moonlights on Twitter highlighting President Joe Biden's political victories on the @BidensWins handle. Monday's tweet, for example: "Oil prices are down 20%. That's a Biden Win!"
Wolf told West Wing Playbook he wanted to highlight Biden's political victories heading into the midterms — because Democrats are often bad at sharing good news. "There's a large part of the Democratic Party that are so focused on the things that they want to do, that they forget what they've already done," he said. Read the full interview here
— Scott Swanson, PNC regional president of Illinois, has been named chair of the Executives' Club of Chicago. He replaces Dean Harrison, CEO of Northwestern Memorial HealthCare.
THE STATEWIDES
— Gov. JB Pritzker isolated at home "out of an abundance of caution" Monday after learning that Val Demings has Covid after attending the Florida Democratic Party conference in Tampa. Pritzker was a headliner.
— In wake of Highland Park mass shooting, Illinois State Police move to expand use of 'clear and present danger' reports: "The alleged Highland Park shooter was able to obtain a FOID card just months after the suburb's police filed a clear and present danger report with state police in September 2019 because the report wasn't retained after it was determined he didn't have a firearm permit or pending application at the time, according to state police," by Tribune's Dan Petrella and Jeremy Gorner.
THE RACE FOR CITY HALL
— IN SPRINGFIELD: Misty Buscher to run for mayor: "City treasurer will challenge Mayor Jim Langfelder as he seeks reelection," by Illinois Times' Dean Olsen.
— IN NAPERVILLE: Mayor Steve Chirico says he'll not seek re-election: "It's time to let someone else chart this community's course alongside the entire City Council and our professional, hardworking City staff," he said in a Facebook post, via NCTV17.
— Ironic timing. The mayor is expected to announce a deal with NASCAR today to bring a racing event to Chicago streets beginning in 2023. The move comes as a City Council committee passed an ordinance Monday to crack down on drag racing after a viral video showed "drivers doing donuts at a crowded Chicago intersection," writes the Tribune's Alice Yin and Gregory Pratt.
— In IL-17, Democrat Eric Sorensen has been added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) "Red to Blue" list, which works to help campaigns of top-tier candidates. "This recognition highlights the campaign's accelerating momentum and that IL-17 is key to holding the Democratic House majority," the DCCC said in a statement.
— JUICE: Democrats for the Illinois House raised more than $207,600 in contributions, and The People for Emanuel "Chris" Welch raised $2.6 million. House Democrats have closed this quarter and prepare to launch the general election season with $13.6 million cash on hand.
DAY IN COURT
— LGBTQ hospital workers denied fertility coverage in test for U.S. discrimination law: "An Illinois-based Catholic hospital system that employs more than 24,000 people will only cover fertility treatment for workers in opposite-sex marriages, a policy some lawyers say could run afoul of federal discrimination laws," by Bloomberg's Shira Stein.
— Uber skirts federal trial on overcharged disabled riders: "A settlement means Uber will avoid a November trial on claims the ride-hail giant violates federal disability rights law by charging disabled riders for taking too long to board vehicles," by Courthouse News Service's Maria Dinzeo.
INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.
Reader Digest
We asked whether term limits are a good or bad thing, and readers had a lot to say:
Public affairs consultant and lobbyist Brian Bernardoni : "Institutional memory is important in public policy — especially in states like Illinois and a city like Chicago. But politically, the old rules about incumbents having the edge are going out the window."
Jenner & Block's Gail Morris: "Vote people out, don't term them out. I realize this sentiment relies on a certain norms like finance reform, fair voting districts etc. Fix those issues, don't make them worse with term limits."
Rich Norman: "When legislators have term limits it gives too much power to lobbyists who then write the legislation. They write enough of it now as it is."
Political analyst Art Friedson: "Like everything in life, it takes time to learn how to do something well. That is especially true of legislating, where institutional knowledge and interpersonal relationships are the two most important things legislators need to become effective."
Tim Thomas Jr.: "Term limits suggest that the voting public does not have the gray matter to vote in their best interests."
Which elected official over the years has had the greatest influence on Illinois politics? Email skapos@politico.com
FROM THE DELEGATION
— Putting heat on Durbin: The liberal group Demand Justice has taken out a six-figure digital ad buy in Illinois to ramp up its campaign for Senate Judiciary Chair Dick Durbin to hold more judicial confirmation hearings during the August recess.
The digital ad, co-sponsored with Indivisible Chicago, asks voters to "tell Senator Durbin: don't give Mitch McConnell a chance to block Biden's judges."
In a statement, Christopher Kang, the group's chief counsel and a former Durbin staffer, said the Illinois Democrat needs to "act with the urgency needed to fill all vacancies with Biden judges this Congress" and hold nomination hearings in August, warning that Republicans could take back the Senate next year and refuse to confirm nominees.
Congress Minutes also reports: A group led by Courts Matter Illinois sent a letter to Durbin Friday, saying that while the Judiciary Committee and Biden have an "impressive record of nominating and confirming inspiring judges with the urgency they deserve … it is clear the process needs to be accelerated."
— Union move: Staffers who work for at least eight House Democrats, including Rep. Chuy Garcia's, are looking to unionize. They filed petitions Monday to "kick off the process," according to Roll Call. "Now they must wait on the Office of Congressional Workplace Rights to vet their petitions before holding a secret ballot election to decide whether they want a union to represent them."
— Guns in the spotlight: Watch for compelling testimony Wednesday when Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering and Sen. Tammy Duckworth testify before the Judiciary Committee on the dangers of civilian access to military-style assault weapons.
What Is … Happily Ever After? "Sarah Bauer and Greer Mackebee met as contestants in the 2012 "Jeopardy! National College Championship." Years later, the one-time competitors became a couple. … Bauer is deputy chief counsel for nominations at the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary for the office of the committee's chairman, Sen. Dick Durbin," via The New York Times.
ENGAGED
Abby Witt, the executive director of the Democratic Party of Illinois, and statehouse lobbyist Dave Lowitzki, are engaged. Lowitzki posted the news on Instagram, saying, "She said it was the 'easiest question ever.' But it was even easier to ask." Awe!
MONDAY's ANSWER: Congrats to Chicago Bureau of Planning's Michael Penicnak for correctly answering that Sen. Howard Baker, a Republican from Tennessee, took up Sen. Everett Dirksen's campaign to make the marigold the national flower after the Illinois Republican died. Baker was Dirksen's son-in-law.
TODAY's QUESTION: Along with former U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Rick Santorum, who's the incumbent senator who attended high school in the northwest suburbs? Email skapos@politico.com
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Cook County Judge Fredrick Bates, former U.S. Attorney Ron Safer, Aurora Health government relations director Crystal Olsen and Illinois Channel executive director Terry Martin. And belated cake and ice cream for John Chase, the Tribune's deputy metro/political editor, who celebrated yesterday.
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We're conducting our 2022 Sustainable Investing Survey to measure how private market participants are incorporating impact strategies and/or ESG risk factors. Take the survey here.
Today's Top Stories
A guide to ESG and impact investing in real estate
Real estate touches every aspect of our lives—from our homes and offices to the land our food is grown on—yet many investors still have questions about how ESG and impact investing fit into this complex asset class.
Our latest analyst note aims to demystify the sustainable investing landscape by exploring ESG-related risks and sustainable investing opportunities presented in private market real estate investments, across strategies and property sectors. Our analyst breaks down the sector's opaque terminology and provides concrete examples of risk and opportunity areas, including climate change adaptation, supply chain management and green buildings.
Address back-office challenges now to maximize value creation
For private equity firms, maximizing growth on an investment is a top priority and the value to be gained from an efficient and effective back-office function cannot be underestimated. Back-office functions are the backbone of any organization and sustaining high performance requires a focus on data, people, processes and technology strategies.
Never has there been a more pivotal time than now to address the strategy, structure and services provided by the back-office functions of a PE-owned portfolio company. Don't be fooled by the name, the back-office affects the whole organization.
From accounting to HR to IT, unlock outcomes to overcome back-office challenges with RSM's interactive experience.
PitchBook is taking the pulse of investors and other private market participants on their incorporation of impact strategies and/or ESG risk factors. Please share your firm's approach to sustainable investing and what drives it. The survey will take about 10 minutes.
All who complete the survey will have the opportunity to enter a prize drawing, and for each completed response, PitchBook will make a donation to World Central Kitchen.
Why this year may be a time for the market's longtime bears, like Tesla short-seller Mark Spiegel, to finally shine. [Institutional Investor]
Texas finds itself in an increasingly dangerous feedback loop: As summers warm, more AC stresses the state's isolated power grid and drives up emissions, further accelerating global warming. [Wired]
The private market players betting on Hollywood's movies and the infrastructure required to film them. [Hollywood Reporter]
Delfi Diagnostics raises $225M for early cancer detection
Delfi Diagnostics has raised a $225 million Series B led by DFJ Growth. The company is a developer of liquid biopsy tests for early cancer detection and monitoring.
HireArt has raised a $26.25 million Series B led by Three Fish Capital, TechCrunch reported. The company provides a recruitment platform designed to help employers hire and manage contractors.
Meow has raised a $22 million Series A led by Tiger Global, with support from QED Investors and FTX. Based in New York, the company enables institutional and corporate investors to participate in cryptocurrency investing.
Berkshire Partners has invested in MedOne, an Israeli provider of colocation data center infrastructure. MedOne operates over 25,000 square meters of data center capacity across four secure underground sites in Israel.
Fundrise launches $1B fund to open tech to individual investors
Fundrise has launched its Fundrise Innovation Fund. The $1 billion growth equity vehicle will enable individuals to invest in a portfolio of private technology companies in sectors including AI and machine learning, modern data infrastructure and financial technology. The multistage fund will be available to any US resident regardless of net worth, unlike typical venture vehicles.
Why it matters: This extreme heat has left some climate scientists shaken and dismayed at how prescient their warnings were, yet how little the global agenda has changed.
Driving the news: Temperatures rose above 104°F (40°C) in the U.K. today for the first time on record. Weather records there go back further in time than in nearly any other country, to the 1600s.
Context: Climate scientists have long pointed to the tie between increasing global average temperatures due to the burning of fossil fuels for energy, and an increased risk of extreme heat events.
What they're saying: "My scientific mind understands that this summer will be one of the coolest for the rest of our lifetimes unless we decide to treat the climate crisis like the emergency that it is," said Andrea Dutton, a climate researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, via email.
Michael Wehner, who studies heat extremes at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, said the early research connecting heat wave severity to greenhouse gas emissions is now more than two decades old.
"To my great disappointment, we were right. In fact, if anything, those early projections of extreme temperatures were overly conservative," he told Axios via email.
Meanwhile, the extreme heat in Europe, along with heat waves seen in Asia and North America this summer, need not foster hopelessness, says NASA climate scientist Kate Marvel.
"It's hard for me to hold two truths simultaneously in my mind, but I have to," she told Axios via email from the United Kingdom.
"The first truth is that we live in a nightmare. This is exactly what climate models projected was going to happen: intensifying extreme weather, severe public health consequences, and incredibly frustrating Congressional inaction. There is no reasonable scenario where the warming stops at 1.2°C, so it's definitely going to get worse," she said.
"The second truth is that we live in a world where things have changed beyond my wildest dreams. Clean energy is dirt cheap compared to fossil fuels, electric cars will soon be widely available, and state and local governments are proposing (and passing!) policies to cut emissions," she said.
The bottom line: "The future is going to be worse. But, if we refuse to give up, it's going to be better, too," Marvel said.
Bonus: Where there is drought, there are wildfires
Data: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS); Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
The wildfires that have exploded in size in Portugal, France and Spain during this heat wave are also tied to a severe drought in the region.
Parts of Europe are in "extreme" to "very extreme" fire danger, per the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, Andrew writes.
Why it matters: A drying of Mediterranean Europe, from Spain to Italy and Greece, is a predicted consequence of human-caused climate change. In some areas, the drought is also enabling air temperatures to climb higher.
What's next: The heat wave poses a particular challenge to firefighters and water managers, since it will only worsen the drought conditions.
One reason the European heat wave is so dangerous is the same reason that growing heat extremes threaten so many elsewhere: Air conditioning is pretty concentrated globally, Ben writes.
Threat level: The New York Times reports that only an estimated 5% of homes in the U.K. have AC.
More broadly, AC is relatively uncommon in Europe. The Washington Post reports that roughly 75% of people in France have no air conditioning.
The big picture: The worsening extremes in Europe come as global warming brings fatal dangers to already hot regions of the planet where AC is also uncommon, such as India.
Zoom in: Via a 2021 International Energy Agency report (based on 2020 data)...
AC ownership is over 90% in the U.S. and Japan, but under 5% in sub-Saharan Africa and under 10% in India, "even though the number of cooling degree days (the metric used to assess the need for cooling services) is twice as high in those countries."
A message from Enbridge
At Enbridge, our focus is on tomorrow
We're investing in low-carbon solutions and modernizing our systems to advance the energy transition.
Our latest sustainability report shares our progress in meeting our ESG goals and integrating sustainability across our businesses.
Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photo: Alexei Nikolsky\TASS via Getty Images
The specter of larger and prolonged cuts in Russian gas flows to Europe is more credible thanks to Russia's cash haul during the commodity price surge, the International Energy Agency warns, Ben writes.
Threat level: In IEA's new memo on ways to cut EU gas demand and find alternative energy supplies, IEA Fatih Birol warns that it's "unwise to exclude the possibility that Russia could decide to forgo the revenue it gets from exporting gas to Europe in order to gain political leverage."
That's because it has "already capitalized" on the energy crisis. Since the invasion of Ukraine started, Russia's revenue from oil and gas exports to Europe "has doubled compared with the average of recent years — to $95 billion."
"[T]he increase in Russia's oil and gas export revenues in just the last five months is almost three times what it typically makes from exporting gas to Europe over an entire winter."
"The European Commission is preparing new emergency powers to force EU countries to reduce their gas consumption if the bloc faces devastating supply shortages in the months ahead," Politico reports.
A new trade group is advocating for early-stage companies seeking to commercialize nascent tech for pulling CO2 from the atmosphere and making sure it doesn't return, Ben writes.
Why it matters: The Carbon Business Council's launch today signals the growing prominence of efforts to scale-up carbon removal as a tool against global warming.
Driving the news: It has over 40 members with an array of technologies for removing CO2, keeping it geologically trapped or embedded in useful products like cement, or creating marketplaces for removal transactions.
Executive director Ben Rubin tells Axios that one goal is "bringing startups to the policy table."
The group is registering to lobby, and Rubin argues there's potential bipartisan backing for greater federal support.
The big picture: Investors and policymakers are increasingly exploring a basket of budding methods for removing previously emitted CO2.
One is direct air capture, which is getting lots of attention and investment these days. But it also includes other concepts, such as ways of speeding CO2 uptake in oceans, rock formations and soils.
Yes, but: Even under optimistic scenarios for scaling this tech, analyses of how to keep global warming in check see emissions-cutting — not removal — doing by far the heaviest lifting.
Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content.
Note from the Editor: At The Late Investor, we're always looking out for special opportunities we believe you'll want to see. Below is a message from our colleagues that we think you should check out.
Hey Trader,
I bet you didn't miss the headlines…
Oil just hit $120 a barrel.
And, if my research is right, it could go a lot higher – a lot higher.
In fact, I believe that oil could push past $180 a barrel in the year ahead.
And I'm hardly alone…
Analysts at Goldman Sachs are now warning that oil could push past $200 a barrel.
Energy experts at Rystand Energy are projecting $250.
And if oil does go this high, it's going to have cascading effects through the entire economy.
It will cause even higher levels of surging inflation…
Already-rising food costs to break all records…
And even a sharp increase in the costs of goods and services.
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Never lose sleep about what you might have missed...
Hey Trader,
Three terrifying forces are converging to immediately threaten your wealth:
Force #1 is the destruction of any decent INTEREST you could possibly earn on your savings. Even if the Fed raises rates, you'll be lucky if you can earn a meager 1% before the end of the year.
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Force #2 is the rapid erosion of your PRINCIPAL by surging inflation. Already, it's the worst in four decades. And it's just beginning to spiral out of control.
My solution: Choice investments that have historically surged when inflation rises and skyrocketed when inflation surges. (More info in this video.)
Force #3 is the gut blow to your PORTFOLIO in a crashing stock market.
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I think it's exactly what the doctor ordered in this chaotic new world.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin D. Weiss, PhD Weiss Ratings Founder
EDITOR'S NOTE: Here at Daily Recap, we're always looking for special opportunities we believe you, as a valued reader, will want to see. Above is a message from our colleagues we think you should check out.
The markets opened higher to start the week as large-cap stock traders await earnings from big names like Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) this week…
It also feels like next week's Fed interest rate announcement is weighing heavily on traders' minds.
The major indexes had a hard time holding up and ended up closing red…
The downward trend started after a report circulated that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will slow hiring and spending into next year.
With this market environment so dependent on news, it's tough to know what the market will bring from one day to the next.
But with penny stocks, there's one simple thing you can do to give you an idea of a stock's future direction…
Using this trick yesterday could've saved you from a potential loss.
So when you're determining if your stock checks all the boxes before a trade, don't forget to check this…
Yesterday morning, Advent Technologies Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADN) was gapping up in premarket…
The company announced the European Union ratified its Green HiPo project. And the stock was trading with decent volume, and it's in a kind of hot sector…
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In general, your spirit is upbeat, freedom loving, and adventurous, Gemini. Today, however, you might find that it's a bit more intense and possibly somber, especially when it comes to romantic issues. This approach to matters of the heart isn't exactly your normal style, but you're apt to find that it's appropriate for your situation now. Make sure you have the right tools for the job at hand.
In general, your spirit is upbeat, freedom loving, and adventurous, Gemini. Today, however, you might find that it's a bit more intense and possibly somber, especially when it comes to romantic issues. This approach to matters of the heart isn't exactly your normal style, but you're apt to find that it's appropriate for your situation now. Make sure you have the right tools for the job at hand.
There is a warm and positive atmosphere around that is perfect for improving the current state of your love life. The planetary energy enables you to get to know a certain person and to make quite a pleasant impression. Although you may not find yourself embroiled in a passionate relationship by this evening, you will certainly have made a very rewarding beginning. Things are looking up!
One of the most important parts of relating to your own body is making sure you get adequate rest. On especially busy days when you feel pulled in many directions, it's crucial that you calm your mind before you go to bed. A hot bath with drops of lavender is a wonderful way to accomplish mental and physical relaxation.
Being more assertive is the only way you will get anywhere today. No one is going to cater to your needs and ask how you are doing and feeling. If you want something done, you need to do it. If you want your needs met, you need to express them.
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On behalf of the Fogarty International Center at the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), the following funding opportunities, notices and announcements may be of interest to those working in the field of global health research. Updates are typically distributed once a week.
The Children's Prize is awarded to scientifically-minded individuals with a passion for global child health and a strong commitment to verify the impact of their work. Round 1 applications now being accepted. Application Deadline: July 31, 2022
The Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases (GACD) Implementation Science Schoolallows early- and mid-career researchers to build their knowledge, skills, and confidence in the fields of implementation science and non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Application deadline: July 25, 2022
Postdoctoral positions at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) are now open in the Virus Ecology Unit within the Laboratory of Virology:
Catalysing Global Health Innovations for Sustainable Development, a conference hosted by Stellenbosch University (SU) and The Consortium of Universities for Global Health (CUGH), is accepting abstracts for papers, panels, and posted. Conference dates: October 22-25, 2022 Submissions deadline: August 4, 2022
July 27 Virtual: DS-I Africa - Networking Exchange An informal opportunity to network with current DS-I Africa awardees and identify potential partners for the DS-I Africa Research Education Program (RFA-RM-22-022) and/or the DS-I Africa Partnership for Innovation Research Projects (RFA-RM-22-023).
This email was sent to edwardlorilla1986.paxforex@blogger.com using GovDelivery Communications Cloud on behalf of: Fogarty International Center at NIH · National Institutes of Health · Bethesda, MD 20892 · (301) 496-2075 · ficinfo@mail.nih.gov
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Editor's note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.
Bracing for the storm — It may be (relatively) smooth sailing still, but corporate executives are bracing themselves for an economic storm that could hit in a matter of months.
From our Ben White : "Talk about recession and inflation has been a dominant topic on second-quarter corporate earnings calls that are starting to flood in. Many executives say they have given up trying to figure out whether inflation has peaked and what the Fed is going to do about it and shifted to preparing their businesses for a prolonged period of rising prices and slower growth."
Asutosh Padhi, managing partner overseeing North America at consulting firm McKinsey & Co., says the debate around inflation has started to shift.
"People have stopped trying to forecast, at least clients I speak with, on how much and how long" the run of inflation will last," said Padhi, who sat down with POLITICO editors and reporters last week to discuss the outlook. "It's permanent enough, therefore let's strategize to think what it means to lead through inflation."
More from Ben: "In private conversations, top CEOs grumble about uncertainty over whether inflation might cause the Fed to speed up rate hikes as well as over what many say are fiscal policy missteps in Washington. Surveys show business confidence is sagging, and consumer sentiment is near record lows."
Unpredictability of the moment: "Both investors and executives are wrestling with one of the more complicated – and in many ways unprecedented – moments in American history, where the economy looks simultaneously strong, with solid job growth and consumer spending, and also close to toppling over," Ben writes.
On top of that, it's an environment that few executives have grappled with in their careers.
Consider this: The last time inflation was this high, in 1981, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon — among the longest-serving big-company CEOs — was 25 and still at Harvard Business School.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, among the longest-serving big-company CEOs, was still in business school the last time inflation was this high. | Michel Euler, Pool/AP Photo
White House critics: Some financial company CEOs griped that the White House doesn't engage enough with front-line business leaders. "What I would criticize the administration for is they rely on economists rather than those deeply engaged in the economy. And it's been hard or impossible for any economist to get any of this right because of the incredibly unique nature of all these disruptions."
Another CEO of a financial titan agreed: "[T]hat doesn't work when there are so many things going on that are unprecedented."
"The White House has said its top officials meet regularly with corporate executives to address their concerns across the economy."
IT'S TUESDAY — Some news on women in the labor force (or one woman, to be precise): The Blue Angels are adding a female jet pilot to their ranks for the first time. Lt. Amanda Lee joins the squadron this fall.
Housing starts and building permits data released at 8:30 a.m. … SEC enforcement director Gurbir Grewal testifies before a House Financial Services subcommittee at 10 a.m. … Senate Banking hearing on racism and discrimination in banking at 10:15 a.m. … Senate Banking hearing on homelessness at 2:30 p.m. … Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks at Minneapolis Fed conference on the Community Reinvestment Act at 2:35 p.m.
THE NEW BAGEHOT PROJECT — For policymakers in the midst of a market panic, being able to pull programs off the shelf rather than build them from scratch is essential. It's why the most successful efforts to avoid a full-blown financial crisis in the early days of the pandemic were ones that had been tried and tested in 2008, says Andrew Metrick, director of the Yale Program on Financial Stability and a former economist at the Obama Council of Economic Advisers.
But honing those crisis-fighting measures often takes a backseat to efforts to prevent future crises from happening.
That's why researchers at Yale began building a database five years ago, which they'll unveil today, with detailed case studies of hundreds of financial crises around the world, dating back to the mid-1800s. Dubbed the New Bagehot Project , the idea is to provide a platform for policymakers to study up during times of calm and use as a resource when markets go off the rails.
"We try to understand, in those specific interventions, what seemed to work, what was a good idea, what was a bad idea, really down into the nitty-gritty details," Metrick said. "So that the next time this happens, if somebody really understands these details and has studied them before and knows how to access them, we will avoid at least making the same mistakes we made before."
The program also announced today that it has raised another $7.5 million to continue building out the platform over the next five years, with donors including Bloomberg Philanthropies and Dalio Philanthropies. You can catch more details on the project at a 9 a.m. webinar presentation Yale is hosting today.
DON'T MISS — Yale also published a transcript of an interview between senior research associate Steven Kelly and Scott Alvarez, the former Fed general counsel often referred to as the eighth Fed governor because of the power he wielded at the central bank. The conversation delves into the Fed's emergency lending authority. Among the newsy nuggets: Alvarez says those powers don't give the central bank the legal authority to buy stocks.
LIANG: ANY BANK AFFILIATE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO ISSUE STABLECOINS — Our Victoria Guida: "A top Treasury official on Monday said the department is working with Congress to pass legislation governing stablecoins that would allow any affiliate of a bank to issue the tokens. In remarks at a Financial Services Forum conference, Nellie Liang said any legislation governing stablecoins, whose value is pegged to an underlying asset like the dollar, would be aimed at allowing both banks and nonbanks to issue the tokens."
HOW JOE MANCHINLEFT A GLOBAL TAX DEAL IN LIMBO — Just last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen privately assured Ireland's finance minister, Paschal Donohoe, that the Biden administration would hold up its end of a global tax agreement brokered by the United States, NYT's Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley wrote. "It turns out that Ms. Yellen was overly optimistic."
But, but — Jared Bernstein, a member of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, said at a White House briefing Monday that "any rumors of its demise are hugely premature." (h/t Alan)
WORD OF TRUMP MEDIA DEAL LEAKED MONTHS IN ADVANCE — NYT's Matthew Goldstein: "Employees at the Miami investment firm, Rocket One Capital, had learned of the pending deal over the summer, long before it was announced, according to three people familiar with the firm's internal discussions. Two of the people said that Rocket One officials at the time talked about ways to profit off the soon-to-be-announced transaction with Trump Media & Technology Group by investing in the SPAC, Digital World Acquisition Corporation. … Federal prosecutors and regulators are now investigating the merger."
TREASURY APPROVES $940M IN SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL FUNDS FOR NINE STATES — Reuters' David Lawder: "The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday said it approved nine state plans for the State Small Business Credit Initiative worth $940 million, bringing total approvals under the COVID-19 recovery venture capital program to $1.5 billion."
HOUSE PREPS FISCAL 2023 MINIBUS — House Democrats have teed up their first fiscal 2023 funding package for floor action this week, approving amendments for debate as the chamber prepares to pass the six-bill bundle, our Jennifer Scholtes reports. The House Rules Committee voted Monday to ready the package, H.R. 8294 (117), which combines half of the 12 annual funding bills, including the Financial Services spending bill.
Fed File
QUARLES: FED SHOULD HAVE HIKED MID-TAPER — Bloomberg's Jonnelle Marte: "The Federal Reserve should have started hiking interest rates before it was done tapering its bond purchases to avoid falling behind on the fight against inflation, Randal Quarles, the Fed's former vice chair for supervision, said … during an interview with the Macro Musings podcast."
TRADER BEHIND HUGE FED FUNDS WAGER BAGS $14M IN FIRST DAY — Bloomberg's Edward Bolingbroke: "A trader is pocketing big profits for breaking with the pack and placing a sizable bet that the Federal Reserve won't increase the size of its interest-rate hikes."
DIVERGING JOBS DATA RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT LABOR MARKET HEALTH — WSJ's Jeffrey Sparshott: "The U.S. added workers at a strong pace over the past three months. It is also losing workers. … The divergence raises questions about the labor market's overall strength as more signs point to a slowing economy."
Jobs Report
Diane Swonk has joined KPMG as chief economist. Swonk was most recently chief economist at Grant Thornton. She also serves as an adviser to the Fed and its regional banks, and serves on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce economic advisory board.
Fly Around
Rising interest rates are slamming the brakes on a global housing boom that spread far beyond the U.S. during the pandemic, heaping extra pressure on central banks as they try to tame inflation without triggering deep downturns in their economies. — WSJ's Jason Douglas, Paul Vieira and Stephen Wright
Big U.S. banks say net interest income, a key source of revenue, will continue to grow this year as interest rates rise, helping to buffer their bottom lines against declines in other key areas of the business. — Reuters' David Henry
A special message from the Editor of Diamond Hand Insider: We are often approached by other businesses with special offers for our readers. While many don't make the cut, the message below is one we believe deserves your consideration.
True story.
Florida man walks into a packed crypto conference…
Good morning Wake-Up Watchlisters! While you're breaking out the paper filters for your coffee you'll see stock futures rose higher Tuesday. The dollar extended its recent decline and treasury yields held steady. This week of corporate earnings has brought about mixed messages from some of the world's biggest companies (more on that below).
Here's a look at the top-moving stocks this morning.
Applied Blockchain (Nasdaq: APLD)
Applied Blockchain is up 34.90% premarket after the company entered a five-year hosting contract with Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: MARA) for 200-Megawatts of Bitcoin mining capacity. The company will provide hosting services for Marathon's Bitcoin miners.
While blockchain appears to be at the forefront of innovation, there's another sector that could skyrocket in the coming years – the electric vehicle sector. Our friend Andy Snyder wants you to know about a technology that could be a staple of all electric cars going forward – and right now you get in on it for less than $25.
NCR is up 15.09% premarket as the company is in exclusive talks to be sold to private-equity firm Veritas Capital, according to people familiar with the matter. This would be one of the biggest leveraged buyouts as the environment for such deals has become more perilous. A deal could be weeks away and is far from guaranteed.
Haliburton Company (NYSE: HAL)
Haliburton is up 3.92% premarket as the oil sector rises on news that Saudi Arabia did not plan to boost its oil output beyond OPEC-assigned quotas. This will likely lead to tightened oil and gas supplies. Also, Haliburton reported strong second-quarter earnings this morning, reporting adjusted net income of $442 million, or $0.49 per diluted share.
Energy stocks have been the major winners in 2022, and we're showing War Room members how to profit. We had a total return of 115.8% in 12 days during the Russia/Ukraine conflict - and right now we're guaranteeing members receive 322 winning trades in their first 12 months of membership.
IBM is down 5.21% premarket despite beating earnings. Futurm Principal Research Analyst Daniel Newman said he feels more positive about IBM after its latest earnings report. Newman says IBM is showing strength in enterprise technology, including automation, A.I. and cloud tech. Overall, Newman believes IBM is a value stock that's in a good position to weather the economic storm.
With markets down overall in 2022, value stocks that can withstand economic headwinds are crucial to pay attention to. That's why we're pounding the table on what we're calling 'The Last Great Value Stock.' Right now it's trading for around $2 – but there's an upcoming announcement in August that could send it soaring.
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Good morning. The past few weeks have seen some relief at the gas pump, as oil prices have come...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.
Good morning. The past few weeks have seen some relief at the gas pump, as oil prices have come back under $100 per barrel. However, President Biden's attempt to get Saudi Arabia to pump more oil out of the ground hasn't gained much traction, and prices are trending up. With Russian gas giant Gazprom halting flows to Germany, it's likely that energy prices could be susceptible to an upward shock.
Given how energy costs translate into the costs of all goods and services, the recent decline may help inflation rates finally drop lower. But they won't be a significant component if energy prices can't stay down. This may be an opportune time to pick up some energy trades with an eye towards an oversold bounce ahead in the energy sector.
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While the latest data shows that retail spending is up – rising 1 percent in the past month—the rate of spending has slowed. That's an indicator that consumers will likely cut back on luxury goods, and focus more on buying basics where they can get reasonable prices.
For investors, that's potentially bad news for a number of retail stocks. However, some companies tend to fare well as they provide customers a variety of goods at inexpensive prices.
Jeffrey Brown, a director at Rent-A-Center Inc (RCII), recently added 1,223 shares to his holdings. The buy increased his stake by just over 1.6 percent, and came to a total cost of just over $25,000.
The director last bought shares in April, paying about the same amount for only 962 shares. And other insiders have been active buyers in the past year as well, including a 40,000 share buy from the company CEO for just over $1 million back in March.
Shares of oil and gas exploration company EQT Corporation (EQT) are up 90 percent over the past year. One trader is betting that shares will rebound back to their 52-week highs in the coming months.
That's based on the December $40 calls. With 150 days until expiration, 4,632 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 101, for a 46-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $4.90 to get into the position.
The latest jobs data shows that the labor market remains strong – at least on a headline level. Data from employers and households, however, is showing a slight divergence, and a sign that some households are losing ground, while others are gaining thanks to holding down multiple jobs.
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs (GS), warns that inflation remains "deeply entrenched" in the global financial system. The CEO remains uncertain of how that will play out through the end of the year, but the investment banks has slowed its rate of hiring and has cut its fee rate as well.
Foreign buyers of US homes have slowed in recent years, amid a competitive bidding market. Now, with interest rates rising and domestic demand slowing, the National Association of Realtors reports that international buyers have increased their buying by 8.5 percent compared to the prior year ending March.
The average rental price in Manhattan topped $5,000 last month, a new record for the history of the city. The average hit $5,018, or $82.18 per square foot. That's a 29 percent increase compared to a year ago, and a 1.7 percent increase compared to May.
Meta Platforms (META) will be holding onto Giphy, the GIF market place for now. The news comes as the UK's Competition Appeal Tribunal has sent the case back to the country's regulator. UK regulators initially ordered the company to sell the platform, but didn't provide full disclosure on documents related to the decision.
S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
FCX
6.197%
ENPH
5.91%
SEDG
5.578%
CCL
5.12%
NCLH
5%
BOTTOM
PGR
4.988%
BIO
3.694%
FTNT
3.687%
REGN
3.43%
DHR
3.409%
Quote of the Day
The market is getting a little bit more convinced that the Fed is probably not going to be delivering a full point rate increase at the end of the month and that we're getting close to seeing peak Fed tightening get priced into the market… [That's] giving some relief for investors to scale back into equities.
- Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, on the market pricing in the end to interest rate hikes, potentially by the end of the year.
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Good News for Investors: Our Green Future Requires Massive Amounts of Copper
Everyone is talking about lithium – from Elon Musk to the guy in the diner.
For all of this lithium talk, massive amounts of COPPER needed to build an electric car.
Just one EV engine requires 10 TIMES more copper compared to a traditional, gas-powered car.
And with the soaring demand for EVs, copper demand is also expected to explode.
Add the soaring demand for EVs to the escalating need for copper in electric grid upgrades and wind & solar requirements, and it's easy to see why copper is expected to explode.
However, without new supplies of copper, the green revolution may be in trouble. The push is on to find fresh copper resources.
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