The 32-Second Trading Method That Helped Me Retire at 42
Editor's Note: Below is an important message from our colleague Jeff Clark, editor of Jeff Clark Trader. Jeff has an exceptional track record when it comes to making money in the stock market. His strategies allow you to potentially make money no matter what the stock does – whether it goes up, down or stays the same. We urge you to continue reading, as you will not want to miss out on this opportunity.
The 32-Second Trading Method That Helped Me Retire at 42 (Live Demo Below)
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But I haven't done it the usual way...
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I'm playing in a softball tournament this weekend and then on vacation with the family for part of next week, but Login won't miss a beat thanks to my awesome colleagues.
🐦 Situational awareness: Twitter's quarterly earnings report showed a year-over-year drop in revenue to $1.18 billion from $1.19 billion, citing macroeconomic factors and continuing uncertainty around its potential sale to Elon Musk.
Today's newsletter is 1,170 words, a 4.5-minute read.
1 big thing: How Amazon stays two steps ahead
Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
For all its size and power, people continue to underestimate Amazon by focusing on what the company's already doing, instead of looking where it will go next.
Why it matters: Amazon is never content with just growing its share of markets it's already in. It always has an eye toward what large market it can upend next.
Driving the news: Amazon announced Thursday it plans to buy health care provider One Medical for roughly $4 billion.
It's hardly the company's first move into health care: Amazon already owns an online pharmacy after buying PillPack, and it operates Amazon Care, a virtual primary care service.
How it works: Like an iceberg, Amazon is always a bigger threat than what's visible from the surface.
In its earliest days in the '90s, observers worried about Amazon's impact on bookstores. But the company was already laying plans to take over other parts of online retail.
By the time rivals were worried about Amazon's dominance of online retail as a whole, it was moving into related areas, including logistics, third-party marketplaces and web services.
As the world woke up to Amazon's strength in those areas, the company was already expanding into physical retail. Whole Foods was its largest play, but it also entered the cashier-free market with Amazon Go, whose technology it's now licensing to others.
Between the lines: Amazon has seized all this turf with little challenge from regulators.
Antitrust law tends to focus on companies amassing too much power in one market — but Amazon keeps hopping into largely new markets.
Conventional antitrust doctrine does bar companies from abusing their power in one market to control another one. But such behavior can only be identified after the fact, leaving regulators struggling to catch up.
Critics say Amazon's saga shows the urgent need for antitrust reform — something Congress has been weighing, but has yet to move forward with.
"Amazon is basically saying to Congress, 'Catch me if you can,'" Sacha Haworth, executive director of the Tech Oversight Project, said in a statement. "Amazon having back door access to private health care data is frankly a terrifying thought."
What's next: Regulators are expected to review the acquisition carefully.
FTC chair Lina Khan made her reputation with research into Amazon's practices and has been working to rewrite merger guidelines to address these kinds of deals.
Whatever happens with One Medical, Amazon is likely to face heavier regulations down the road.
If it does end up acquiring One Medical, Amazon will be plunging deeper into a medical business that's much more tightly regulated than any other area it has operated in.
The other side: Amazon, for its part, says it knows this, and that's why the public should rest easy about its custody of their medical data.
The company notes in a statement that "nothing about this transaction changes One Medical's obligations to comply with the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) and all their applicable laws and regulations."
2. Snap's outlook raises fears of ad slowdown
Illustration: Axios Visuals
A disappointing outlook from Snap Inc. spooked investors and heightened concerns that the once fast-growing online ad business is headed for a significant slowdown, Axios'Sara Fischer reports.
Why it matters: Snapchat's Thursday earnings report could spell trouble for a range of other companies, including giants Google and Facebook.
Catch up quick: Snap had already warned investors it would miss its second quarter guidance, but Thursday's report and outlook were even worse than anticipated.
The company declined to predict revenue or earnings for the coming quarter, but said, "It will likely take some time before we see significant improvements."
Shares of Snap Inc. were down more than 26% in after-hours trading Thursday after the company said revenue growth would meaningfully slow in the months ahead.
Be smart: Snap cautioned investors not to expect the same revenue growth levels they've become accustomed to over the past four years.
Between 2018, its first full year as a public company, through the end of 2021, Snap grew revenue at an average compound annual rate of more than 50%.
Yes, but: Snap's user growth remained strong last quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations. The company added 15 million daily active users (DAUs) last quarter, bringing its total number of active users to 347 million globally.
What's next: In a statement, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said the company will try to boost revenue from direct-response advertising.
Bottom line: "This is a mess. This is kind of the worst case scenario we could've envisioned," Rick Heitzmann, founder and partner of FirstMark and an early Pinterest investor, said of the earnings on CNBC.
3. Major game lobbyist faces cash crunch
The video game industry's biggest trade group is weathering a revenue shortfall, even as it continues to shape public policy around games, Axios' Stephen Totilo reports.
Driving the news: Revenue for the Entertainment Software Association dropped more than $10 million, or 25%, in the 12 months ending March 31, 2021, due to the lack of its E3 trade show in recent years, according to an Axios review of its tax filings.
Why it matters: The ESA, which has 30 corporate members including EA, Tencent, Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft, is one of the industry's power players, but what it does tends to fly under the radar.
Among its most prominent duties: running E3 and the Entertainment Software Ratings Board, which applies ratings to games.
What they're saying: The ESA serves as "the voice" of the industry, the group's president, Stanley Pierre-Louis, told Axios in an interview. It strives to perpetually boost gaming's reputation while lobbying D.C. and state lawmakers.
In 2021, the ESA spent $2.5 million in lobbying and millions more in advocacy involving such issues as intellectual property, child safety, free speech and STEM education.
After its founding in 1994, it had to focus on playing defense against U.S. politicians, largelyDemocrats, who blamed games for violence.
These days, the ESA is staking policy positions on loot-boxes (not gambling; let the industry self-regulate), immigration (supportive of visas for high-tech workers and esports athletes and backed the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA) and more.
What's next: The ESA's E3 show is set for a return in 2023, with events firm ReedPop producing.
A message from American Edge Project
Voters are focused on inflation — not breaking up tech
Midterm voters' top priorities for Congress are inflation (88%), national security (86%) and jobs (85%).
84% of voters agree "there are other, bigger problems facing the United States, we should not be focused on breaking up U.S. tech companies right now."
Canadian telecom firm Rogers Communications has replaced chief technology officer Jorge Fernandes with industry veteran Ron McKenzie, per The Globe and Mail. The move follows a massive outage that left customers without service nationwide.
ICYMI
The Senate is moving toward approving a compromise on a bill subsidizing domestic chip manufacturing and funding other efforts to compete with China. The latest version brings the funding level closer to the original $250 billion. (Axios)
YouTube will begin removing and labeling certain abortion-related content on the video-sharing platform. (Axios)
Voters prioritize inflation over far-reaching tech regulation
A new midterm voter poll finds that regulating tech is not a top priority for voters.
Key number: 74% of voters agree that "breaking up U.S. tech companies will only hurt America's competitiveness on the global stage, at a time when our adversaries are becoming bolder."
It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.
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Try to see two sides of every issue today. The cosmic energy may lead you to the mirror, where you may be tempted to be scrutinizing and unforgiving. Be gentle with yourself: remember that it is what you tell yourself, and not what others say, that most affects how you feel! And you feel good if you accept yourself as you are and do your bit to stay healthy. You may use this energy to recognize and appreciate what works in your life. If your legs work, use 'em!
Try to see two sides of every issue today. The cosmic energy may lead you to the mirror, where you may be tempted to be scrutinizing and unforgiving. Be gentle with yourself: remember that it is what you tell yourself, and not what others say, that most affects how you feel! And you feel good if you accept yourself as you are and do your bit to stay healthy. You may use this energy to recognize and appreciate what works in your life. If your legs work, use 'em!
Should you hold on, or let go? Get instant answers with a live psychic reading.Chat online now.
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The Daily Pitch is powered by PitchBook's industry-defining research and best-in-class data
In today's Daily Pitch, you'll find:
Briarcliffe Credit Partners' founder and chief executive shares his perspective on the fundraising market in the private credit space.
PE deals in the software sector have mostly weathered global market turbulence.
VC fund returns turned negative in Q1, according to preliminary data in the latest edition of PitchBook's Benchmarks.
Today's Top Stories
Fundraising adviser explores private debt capital-raising trends in 2022
(bagira22/Getty Images)
The fundraising pace for private debt strategies is showing signs of slowing, according to PitchBook data, a reversion from last year's fast clip. Just $28.9 billion was raised for private credit funds in the first quarter of 2022, a sharp decline compared with the record $72.8 billion raised in Q4 2021.
A string of macro headwinds are weighing on managers' fundraising efforts. However, certain strategies—which could maintain resilient performance in volatile markets and rising rate environments—will remain popular among allocators who are hunting for opportunities to earn higher returns in a time of uncertainty.
We spoke with Jess Larsen of Briarcliffe Credit Partners, a placement agent dedicated to private credit managers, to take the pulse of the current fundraising market in the space.
The global private markets' decade-long expansion was most recently defined by record-breaking activity in fundraising, fund performance and dealmaking. The current volatility has yet to be fully captured in fund returns, yet there are hints of what's to come, as preliminary data from Q1 shows that VC returns have turned negative.
Our quarterly PitchBook Benchmarks provide a detailed snapshot of data, tracking aggregate closed-end fund returns across multiple strategies and vintage years. The latest edition is now available, including data through Q4 2021 and preliminary data from Q1 2022, and providing downloadable XLS tables, data visualizations and PDFs that break down the figures by fund type and geography.
Fund managers benefit from $3.8m savings with Apex Group
Forrester Consulting has recently released its independent study, having interviewed key decision-makers across a number of large Apex Group clients, and the findings in its Total Economic Impact™ study of Apex Group are compelling:
Around $5.4m in cost benefits
$2.75m Net Present Value over three years
105% return on investment ROI
To find out more about the benefits and savings that Apex Group's single-source solution can provide, download Forrester's Total Economic Impact™ report on Apex Group here.
Apex Group's transformation over the past few years has been driven by the Group's founding vision—to deliver service in a better way, in a way that no one else can.
Share:
Software industry withstands market turbulence, remains hot for PE firms
(Oselote/Getty Images)
Through Q2 of this year, PE firms have completed 378 deals within the software sector, totaling $74.4 billion in deal value.
Deals within the software industry have remained mostly unfazed by global market turbulence, and sub-sectors within the space have also performed strongly.
Vår Energi IPO stands out from slow start to 2022 PE exits in Europe
(Christian Guiton/Getty Images)
Norwegian oil and gas producer Vår Energi's roughly $7 billion IPO represents the biggest PE-backed exit in the first half of this year as overall activity has slowed down.
The deal is an outlier in an exit landscape currently dominated by strategic buyers and secondary deals amid public market volatility. See the top 10 PE exits in the region ranked by deal size.
With college diplomas in hand, Generation Z is entering the workforce. What they want from employers is not quite the same as in generations past. [The Economist]
Carbon-capture innovators claim they can spare us a global climate catastrophe—and make billions in the process. [Texas Monthly]
The startup working to bring the Metaverse to kids in a way teachers and parents can trust. [Forbes]
Whatnot has raised $260 million at a $3.7 billion valuation in a Series D co-led by DST Global and CapitalG. The Los Angeles-based company offers a live shopping platform for collectors and enthusiasts.
Meati Foods has raised a $150 million Series C led by Revolution Growth. Based in Colorado, the company offers meat alternatives made from mushroom root.
15Five, the developer of a performance management platform for small and medium-sized businesses, has raised $52 million in a round led by Quad Partners. The company was valued at more than $140 million in 2019, according to PitchBook data.
Zededa has raised $26 million from investors including Lux Capital and Energize Ventures. The San Jose-based company's edge computing platform is designed to help enterprise customers manage and orchestrate distributed edge infrastructure and applications.
Anvilogic has raised a $25 million Series B led by Outpost Ventures, a Neuberger Berman fund. Based in Palo Alto, the company offers a cybersecurity platform that automates threat detection and incident response.
TaskHuman has raised a $20 million Series B led by Madrona. The company is the developer of a digital coaching platform for employees in areas including career and leadership, physical fitness and mental well-being.
Sixth Street leads $600M investment in Contentsquare
Sixth Street has led a $600 million investment in Contentsquare, a digital experience analytics company. The deal brings Contentsquare's valuation to $5.6 billion.
HarbourView lands music catalog of Hollywood Undead
HarbourView Equity Partners has acquired the publishing and recorded music catalog of rock band Hollywood Undead. The band, which debuted in 2008, is set to release its eighth studio album in August.
HIG Capital has acquired Family Entertainment Group, an Illinois-based designer, developer and operator of amusement facilities. Family Entertainment Group also runs nearly 60 arcade locations throughout the US.
Fifth Wall has closed its inaugural climate fund on $500 million. The vehicle will target companies developing software, hardware, renewable energy, energy storage, smart buildings and carbon sequestration technologies aimed at decarbonizing the real estate industry.
Blackstone posts net loss; distributable earnings nearly double in Q2
Blackstone posted a net loss of $29.4 million in its latest earnings release, reporting that its corporate private equity portfolio declined 6.7% in the second quarter, but rose 10.1% over the last 12 months. The firm reported its distributable earnings—the allocation of cash that can be returned to investors—hit $2 billion in Q2, up 86% from the same period last year, and that its AUM rose to nearly $941 billion.
Is the sun shining brighter than usual? Maybe, because as this solar body makes its move from shy Cancer into outgoing fire sign Leo today, you'll definitely be feeling the heat! Even if you're not a celebrity, you feel like one now, and you love to be treated as if every move you make is like walking down the red carpet. Your favorite accessory?...
Is the sun shining brighter than usual? Maybe, because as this solar body makes its move from shy Cancer into outgoing fire sign Leo today, you'll definitely be feeling the heat! Even if you're not a celebrity, you feel like one now, and you love to be treated as if every move you make is like walking down the red carpet. Your favorite accessory?...Read More
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🍺 We made it! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,184 words, 4.5 minutes.
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🎶 Happy birthday to funk pioneer George Clinton of Funkadelic and Parliament, who have this week's final intro tune...
1 big thing: Democrats' fragile gas price reprieve
Data: AAA; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios
Falling gasoline prices may be a political relief for President Biden and Democrats, but there's no guarantee they won't spike again ahead of the midterm elections, Ben writes.
Driving the news: The national average has plummeted by nearly 60 cents since breaching $5 per gallon in mid-June, per AAA, though prices remain high.
The big picture: Future oil and gasoline prices are notoriously hard to game out, and this moment is especially heavy on wild cards.
But analysts see the possibility of another price spike in the months ahead, even though markets have loosened up somewhat. Two of the key risks ...
An active hurricane season could produce powerful storms that hit the Gulf Coast.
What they're saying: Energy analyst Bob McNally says the crisis spawned by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is creating perhaps the largest prolonged energy disruption risk since the 1970s.
"To paraphrase Winston Churchill, we're not even at the end of the beginning of this energy war, this conflict, much less the beginning of the end," he said.
The International Energy Agency this month reported that Russian supply has thus far remained "resilient," but it added:
"As an EU embargo on Russian oil is set to come into full force at the end of the year, the oil market may tighten once again."
Don't sleep on weather and climate change either. NOAA predicts this year's Atlantic hurricane season may be unusually active.
Major storms hitting the Gulf Coast refining belt could curtail gasoline output and transport in what's already a tight fuels market.
GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan tells Axios that absent disruptions, he sees national average gas prices en route back to less than $4 per gallon.
But he adds: "If we do see a major hurricane, there could and likely will be a profound impact, especially if it's a Category 4 or 5, maybe even a Category 3 storm."
"If we see that between New Orleans and Houston, I would say all bets are off and certainly there's a potential we go right back up to $5."
Those topsy-turvy undulations helped to cause both the 115-degree high temperature in Mangum, Oklahoma, on Tuesday and the U.K.'s breaking its all-time record-high temperature, with 104.36°F recorded in Coningsby, England, the same day, scientists tell Axios.
Driving the news: The jet stream has come under particular scrutiny by climate scientists in recent years due to the hypothesis that the changing temperature difference between the equator and the North Pole could slow down this key weather maker, especially during the summer.
Perturbations in the jet stream, or its waviness, can enable the formation and maintenance of intense heat domes such as those that have impacted parts of the U.S., Europe and Asia in recent weeks.
The big picture: The jet stream travels around the Northern Hemisphere from west to east, powered by the temperature differences between air masses.
Some climate scientists think that over time, climate change is affecting the jet stream in ways that make long-lasting, stronger areas of high pressure, or heat domes, more likely to occur.
Cities could dramaticallyreduce peak summer temperatures by replacing hot, dark surfaces — like streets, rooftops, playgrounds and parking lots — with cooler alternatives, according to the Smart Surfaces Coalition, Axios' Jennifer A. Kingson reports.
Why it matters: Cities have been slow to embrace mitigation measures — which can be as simple as painting asphalt with inexpensive chemical coatings that block the absorption of solar radiation.
Urban policymakers have been working "piecemeal" on initiatives like "cool roof" policies and "cool pavement" programs — but they'll only get meaningful results from an inclusive plan that involves all heat-trapping surfaces, says Smart Surfaces Coalition founder Greg Kats.
A full suite of interventions could reduce peak temperatures up to 5 degrees — but make it feel up to 15 degrees cooler, he said. The three-year-old coalition is working with Baltimore to try to make the city a model of what can be done.
Electricity prices in Europe are headed to record-breaking territory — and government bailouts are getting underway to save the energy market, Axios' Kate Marino writes.
In Germany, France and Italy, July is on track to be the highest-priced month ever for spot power prices, according to Rystad Energy.
The big picture: A perfect storm of soaring natural gas prices triggered by Russian supply issues, high coal prices, low wind speeds and scorching weather is driving the price moves, the research firm wrote in a recent note.
State of play: Some of Europe's electric utilities — faced with passing on higher costs to customers or taking losses themselves — are failing.
Germany's Uniper SE today agreed to a bailout deal in which the government will take a 30% stake in exchange for €15 billion euros.
Électricité de France agreed to a full takeover by the French government, which will inject €10 billion.
What to watch: Bloomberg's Javier Blas estimates the bailouts have only just begun — and may ultimately cost European taxpayers $200 billion or more.
5. Amazon's new electric Rivian vans hit the road
Photo courtesy of Amazon
Amazon began wide-scale deliveries yesterday of its Rivian-designed electric cargo van, a next-generation logistics vehicle years in the making, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick reports.
Why it matters: Significantly electrifying Amazon's delivery van fleet could help the company meet its ambitious target of hitting net-zero carbon emissions by 2040.
Commercial fleets will probably go electric at a significant scale before everyday car buyers — meaning companies like Amazon and FedEx are poised to drive the electrification revolution.
Driving the news: Amazon introduced the production model of Rivian's van, called the Electric Delivery Vehicle (EDV), at a Chicago press event following a pilot program that began last year.
The EDV also rolled out Thursday in Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Nashville, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle and St. Louis, "among other cities" in the U.S., per Amazon.
Axios' Joann Muller has an incisive lookat Ford's suite of battery and raw materials sourcing announcements we covered yesterday.
Zoom in: One way Ford intends to meet its EV targets: adding a second type of battery chemistry to its lineup called lithium iron phosphate (LFP), alongside its existing nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) chemistry.
It will initially import LFP battery packs from China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. for its Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning pickup, starting next year.
But Ford also wants to produce LFP batteries in North America and plans to open a 40-GWh LFP cell factory by 2026. (That's in addition to three previously announced battery plants in Tennessee and Kentucky.)
Between the lines: Iron and phosphorous are abundant, which is why LFP cells cost at least 30% less than today's nickel- and cobalt-based batteries, Guidehouse Insights' Sam Abuelsamid explains in Forbes.
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TGIF, Illinois. The president has Covid, but it's going to be OK. Here's why Joe Biden's case is different than Donald Trump's .
TOP TALKER
Rep. Adam Kinzinger speaks as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol on Thursday, July 21, 2022. | AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite
The committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack returned to prime time Thursday night — and starring in this cliff-hanger episode was Illinois Congressman Adam Kinzinger, who's railed on former President Donald Trump's involvement since the rioters finally left the Capitol.
Kinzinger helped lead the inquiry showing that Trump failed for hours to call off the mob even as its members gained entry onto Capitol grounds.
"President Trump did not fail to act … he chose not to act," Kinzinger said in the hearing, calling the former president's (non)actions a "supreme violation" of his oath of office and a "complete dereliction of his duty to our nation."
The Illinois Republican said when the House select committee presents its full findings, it will "recommend changes to laws and policies to guard against another Jan. 6."
The scene : The committee showed than over 187 minutes, Trump sat in a dining room near the Oval Office to watch the riot unfold on Fox News. During that time, he also called senators. All the while, his top aides and daughter Ivanka were pleading for him to say or tweet something forceful to stop the attack, according to witnesses.
The big surprise: The panel aired outtakes from Trump's remarks in a video message after the attacks. He's seen pushing back at the notion of condemning the violence and admitting the election was over.
Trump draws the line: When he finally did that TV shot, it was after the fact, and he had a hard time acknowledging what happened. "I don't want to say the election is over," Trump said in an outtake from the Jan. 7 remarks. "I just want to say Congress has certified the results."
MORE
— Jan. 6 panel details Trump's actions during Capitol riot:"Lawmakers on Thursday broke down the former president's 187 minutes of inaction as a riot engulfed the Capitol, promising more hearings on the way," by POLITICO's Nicholas Wu and Kyle Cheney.
Michael Strautmanis, VP of external affairs at the Obama Foundation, greets former Obama staffers at Hubbard Inn on Thursday, July 22, 2022. | Obama Foundation photo
Some alumni members of former President Barack Obama's political campaigns and administration gathered last night at Hubbard Inn in River North to reminisce and organize.
No, there's no plan for a return to politics . The former aides who now head the Obama Foundation are organizing as part of its mission to mentor the next generation of leaders. Michael Strautmanis, David Simas, Tina Tchen, and Natalie Bookey-Baker are staying put in Chicago, where Obama's presidential center is being built.
"I haven't looked back," Simas, foundation president and former director of political affairs for administration, told Playbook about his White House years. "Now, it's all about the foundation."
Ditto for Strautmanis, the foundation's executive VP of external affairs; Tchen, the executive VP and chief strategy and impact officer; and Bookey-Baker, the VP of civic engagement.
"It's a little like high school. You enjoyed it, but you don't want to go back," Jon Carson, the former director of the White House Office of Public Engagement and deputy assistant to the president, told Playbook. He's gone on to found Trajectory Energy Partners, an Illinois-based solar company.
The Obama alums may be happier out of the limelight, but they still keep an eye on the old White House stomping grounds and their friend Joe Biden.
"I have a lot of sympathy for the president and try to send encouraging emails and texts to friends who are working there now. It's a magical but taxing place to work," said Mike Ruemmler, a government affairs consultant who worked on the advance team in the Obama White House.
They also recognize the stakes seem higher today: "We were worried about the recession, and this White House is dealing with a pandemic and an insurrection," said José Rico, who heads Truth, Racial Healing, and Transformation Greater Chicago. He led the White House Initiative on Educational Excellence for Hispanic Americans. "We were worried that Barack might not have a second term. They're worried about Trumpism and preserving Congress and the White House," he said.
Justin DeJong, who was USDA' director of public affairs and now is comms VP at the American Medical Association, acknowledges, "At least once a week, I wish I was in D.C. to help."
SPOTTED: Illinois Democratic Party Executive Director Abby Witt, as well as Kori Schulman, John Oxtoby, Alex Hirschhorn, Jaylin McClinton, Darienne Page, Roz Skozen, Erin Hannigan, Lindsay Mueller, and Tim Tuten.
Have a news tip, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? I'd like to hear from you: skapos@politico.com
STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .
WHERE'S JB
No official public events.
WHERE'S LORI
No official public events.
Where's Toni
In Aurora, Colo., for the National Association of Counties Conference.
BUSINESS OF POLITICS
Ald. Michele Smith to resign City Council seat Aug. 12:"The decision by the Lincoln Park alderperson gives Mayor Lori Lightfoot the rare chance for a third appointment to the Council. Lightfoot already has replaced Patrick Daley Thompson, forced to resign after a federal conviction, and Michael Scott Jr., who left for a private sector job," by Sun-Times' Fran Spielman
"Among the accomplishments she touted in her announcement were the revitalization of the areas around the former Children's Memorial Hospital site and the Armitage and Halsted commercial corridor; the additions of new preschools, new infrastructure for existing schools and new affordable housing; and the passage of legislation on government ethics, most recently on Wednesday," by Tribune's Alice Yin and A.D. Quig.
— Prospect of power grid shortages, lack of action anger lawmakers:"The Democrats said Thursday there are 34 clean energy projects in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator queue that need approval quickly. The wind and solar projects could generate more than 6,000 megawatts of energy, and lawmakers say they could power 4.5 million homes downstate," by WGEM's Mike Miletich.
— ANALYSIS: Poll shows Pritzker's popularity remains steady as Biden's slides in Illinois: "Morning Consult showed Gov. JB Pritzker's approval rating at 51 percent among Illinois voters, or seven points 'above water' in polling lingo." Meanwhile, the governor has $60 million cash on hand at end of June compared to $363,000 for Republican Darren Bailey.
— Republican State Treasurer candidate Tom Demmer has tapped Tony Esposito as campaign manager. Esposito managed ILGOP and RNC political operations for several cycles before joining the state's Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity. Esposito most recently was political director on Richard Irvin's campaign for governor.
— Amazon goes electric:"Rivian CEO and founder R.J. Scaringe and top Amazon executives were on hand Thursday afternoon to unveil the electric vans at an Amazon delivery station on South Woodlawn Avenue in the Pullman neighborhood on Chicago's South Side, where packages will be loaded for delivery to doorsteps," by Tribune's Robert Channick.
The University of Illinois board of trustees on Thursday approved the purchase of a property in downtown Springfield that will become the new University of Illinois Springfield Innovation Center, the university said in a statement.
INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .
Reader Digest
We asked what song speaks to you in these political times:
Kristin Rubbelke of Capitol Edge Consulting likes Chumbawamba's Tubthumping . Key lyric: "I get knocked down, but I get up again. You are never gonna keep me down." Amen, sister!
TV host Brandon Pope:La Femme Fetal by the rap group Digable Planets. "This 1993 song is eerily timely after the overturning of Roe v. Wade," writes Pope. "The song plays like a conversation between a couple making a hard decision, and the outside factors that may impact it."
Todd Fraley, who handles government affairs for American Academy of Pediatrics: Wilco's new double LP, Cruel Country . "Jeff Tweedy, poignant as ever, says it all in the title track: 'I love my country, stupid and cruel.'"
Janice Anderson, a DuPage County political observer, likes Zedd, Maren Morris, Grey's The Middle . "That's my song to the Illinois Republican Party this year. I thought we were a big tent party."
Comms pro Rosemaria DiBenedetto likes Billy Joel'sWe Didn't Start the Fire . DiBenedetto points to "the parallels" of Joel's lyrics: "it was always burning since the world's been turning" and "we didn't light it but we tried to fight it."
Robin Johnson, Monmouth College political science professor, likes the Beatles All You Need Is Love .
Do you share the same political views as your significant other? Email skapos@politico.com
WOMEN RLE
Your Playbook host talked to the logistics experts helping patients get to Illinois for abortion procedures. That means finding funding, transportation, food, lodging and child care. One Illinois activist describes it as being an abortion concierge. The newsletter will be out later this morning. You can sign up here .
SPOTTED
Former Illinois state senators seated, left to right: Jim DeLeo, Susan Garrett, Kwame Raoul, Kathy Parker, John Cullerton, George Ryan, Iris Martinez, Emil Jones, Jack Schaeffer. Back row: Ed Petka, Denny Jacobs, Jeff Schoenberg, Matt Murphy, Donne Trotter, Dan Kotowski, Tom Walsh, Don Harmon, Duane Noland, Dan Rutherford, Peter Roskam, Dave Sullivan, Ed Maloney, Billy Marovitz, Mike Frerichs, Frank Watson, Mike Jacobs, Walter Dudycz, AJ Wilhelmi, Max Coffey, Bob Raica, Christine Radogno, Todd Sieben, Pam Althoff, Randy Hultgren, Kay Wojcik, | Reunion organizers
It was all smiles for a bipartisan reunion of former Illinois state senators. They gathered Wednesday at Carnivale, owned by former state Sen. William "Billy Marovitz. He organized the gathering along with former GOP Leader Frank Watson and former Democrat Sen. Pam Althoff . Senators who served from 1970 to 2010 joined.
Some big names in attendance: former Gov. George Ryan, current Senate President Don Harmon, and former presidents John Cullerton and Emil Jones, former GOP leader Christine Radogno, former Congressmen Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Treasurer Mike Frerichs, RTA Chair Kirk Dillard, former AG Lisa Madigan , former Treasurer Dan Rutherford, Center for Illinois Politics' Susan Garrett and former Sens. Laura Kent Donahue and Karen McConnaughay.
TAKING NAMES
The Senate approved Chicagoan Leslie Bluhm to serve on AmeriCorps' board of directors. | Bluhm photo
Chicago nonprofit leader Leslie Bluhm received U.S. Senate approval Thursday to serve on the board of directors of AmeriCorps, the federal agency that supports volunteerism and national service. Bluhm has been focused on volunteerism for 30 years, having founded and served as president of Chicago Cares, a nonprofit organization that connects volunteers to service projects in and around Chicago.
Like her father, billionaire Neil Bluhm,Bluhm is a big backer of Democratic political campaigns and causes. She served as a bundler for Joe Biden's presidential bid. And she's donated to Gov. J.B. Pritzker's and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot's campaigns.
THURSDAY's ANSWER: Edwin B. Schaefer was a member of Congress who began his career as a chemical engineer and retired as a board member of Griesediech-Western Brewery Co. in Belleville.
TODAY's QUESTION: What happens to the butter on the 500-pound plus butter cow after the Illinois State Fair wraps up? Email skapos@politico.com
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Today: Former Gov. Jim Edgar, and former Ald. Joe Moore.
Saturday: Chicago Board of Ed President Miguel del Valle, Illinois Deputy Attorney General Adam Braun, attorney and alderman candidate Sam Royko, ABC 7 political reporter Craig Wall, PwC tax partner Jennifer Darling, Highwire PR's Stephani Englund and former state Rep. Edward "Eddie" Acevedo.
Sunday: former Chicago City Treasurer Kurt Summers, Habitat Co. founderDaniel Levin,former Tribune Nonexecutive Chairman Michael Ferro, WGN Radio's Anna Davlantes, Global Strategy Group's Nicole Jaconetty and Illinois Young Democrats VP and Lockport Township Democrats vice chair Alex Zapién.
This can be a stable and seemingly uneventful day, but powerful forces are at work just behind the scenes. Issues of control that no one wants to talk about may undermine your best intentions. You are usually very open about what you think, although this may not help. Wisdom advises patience.
This can be a stable and seemingly uneventful day, but powerful forces are at work just behind the scenes. Issues of control that no one wants to talk about may undermine your best intentions. You are usually very open about what you think, although this may not help. Wisdom advises patience.
Should you hold on, or let go? Get instant answers with a live psychic reading.Chat online now.
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Bloomberg calls it "Internet delivered from the heavens…"
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It's a company called ExlService Holdings (EXLS). It offers business process outsourcing (or BPO - remember that from about 20 years ago?).
It also offers automation services - which is the important bit - and data-driven insights to customers in multiple industries. There's your diversification. The company operates through four segments based on the products and services offered and the markets served: insurance, healthcare, emerging and analytics.
That's good breadth, which you want as well.
More than half of the company's revenue comes from business process management and related services.
Businesses need to be efficient, cost-effective, competitive and highly productive. That's what a company like this helps with. That's what you use it for.
The company saw revenues of $329 million in the first quarter of 2022, a 25% year-over-year increase. And I think as companies feel the pressure of a recession, they'll be looking to cut costs or become more efficient, more automated. That means companies like this should do well.
ExlService won 19 new clients in the first quarter of 2022. That tells you a lot, doesn't it?
Now let's look at the company in a bit more detail.
By my Growth-Value-Income system, it's got a rating of 8 out of 10. This is my proprietary algorithm that tells me about the valuation of a company, its profitability relative to its share price, its revenue growth, its dividend yields... all of these factors, which then help me assess it. And we score things out of 10.
The algorithm itself is based on extensive research. We've taken information from Nobel Prize winners and from our own experience and then weighted the various criteria, such as valuation, revenue growth, cash flow, momentum and so on.
So ExlService has an 8 out of 10, which is good.
Its cash return on capital invested - or CROCI - is 13.8%. Now, remember, companies in the top quartile, the top 25%, by CROCI generally tend to produce 30% per annum returns according to Deutsche Bank, which invented this formula (which is now used by Goldman Sachs Wealth Management).
Now, it doesn't mean you hold those companies forever. You pick them in any given 12-month period, companies in the top quartile. And then, for the next 12 months, you pick whichever the top-quartile companies are. And for the next 12 months, you pick the top-quartile companies. That's what gives you the 30% on average. Not guaranteed... but on average.
So ExlService is part of that bundle. That's good. It doesn't mean it's going to get 30%, it doesn't mean it's guaranteed to go above it or guaranteed to go below it, but it's in the right direction.
The company has good momentum. It's up 13% in the last six months. Not many companies can say that.
Its Sortino ratio, the average of the return versus the volatility, or the risk of missing that return, is at 0.6. Ideally, you want it to be above 1, but very few companies do that. Above 0.5 or 0.4 is fine by me.
Return alpha is good - that means it can outperform the market. Volatility is below 20%. That's good as well.
So all good there.
Pretax profits are on the rise. Turnover is on the rise. Profits for the financial year are on the rise. Net asset value is gradually going up. Total assets are going up.
I know borrowing has been increasing. Well, actually, it's been holding steady for the last few years.
So on the amount of borrowing the company has done, it's been able to generate ever-increasing turnover and profitability. That is good. It's a company which is doing the right thing.
In terms of quality, the return on capital employed, CROCI and return on equity are all good.
The slight red flag is forecast P/E. That's at a multiple of 25.8. Now, the problem with that is the share price is forecast to be 25 times its future profitability. That's a bit high. And if that's missed, the price would get hit a bit.
A multiple that high means quite a degree of optimism is already factored in. So we have to be a bit cautious and careful there.
Now, if I look at the stock price chart, there have been a couple of analysts issuing "Buy" ratings recently. That's good. The stock is near all-time highs, which is surprising in this kind of market.
Like I said, you don't often see that, do you?
It's really taken off since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Before COVID-19, it had been growing, tagging along at maybe 10% per annum. Since COVID-19 - vroom. And I think whilst it's gone for a bit of a breather this year, it'll continue upward as well.
So overall, I'm happy. I'm pleased with what's coming out of this company.
That's my Stock of the Week, and hopefully, I've provided some good insights for you to learn as well.
Thank you very much.
You can see all the data and charts I've reviewed for the company in the latest episode of Stock of the Week. Just click here or on the image below to watch it.
Alpesh Patel is an award-winning hedge fund and private equity fund manager, international bestselling author, and entrepreneur. He is the founder and CEO of Praefinium Partners, a Financial Times top FTSE 100 forecaster, and a senior Dealmaker in the U.K.'s Department for International Trade. As a recognized authority on fintech, online trading and venture capital, his past and current client list includes American Express, Merrill Lynch HSBC, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, Barclays... and more.
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Never lose sleep about what you might have missed...
EDITOR'S NOTE: Here at Daily Recap, we're always looking for special opportunities we believe you, as a valued reader, will want to see. Above is a message from our colleagues we think you should check out.
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It’s late July, so of course, I’m fantasizing about of Halloween and Christmas. Your comments on my post about happiness blew me away. To quote reader Pamela B., “What a fantastic group of people.”
“Some surprising good news: Bookstores are booming and becoming more diverse.” This is certainly true in Austin, TX. In addition to Bookpeople and my new hyperlocal store, Black Pearl Books, I can get to at least a half dozen good indie bookstores on my bike within 20 or 30 minutes. (That’s not even counting the cool stores popping up in the small towns outside of Austin, like my friend Ryan Holiday’s The Painted Porch Bookshop in Bastrop.)
“I’d write something and think, This is really good. Wake up, read it, it’s [expletive]. Start again.” A profile of director Michael Mann. (His pilot for Tokyo Vice was one of my favorite things I saw on TV this year. Heck, just writing this makes me want to throw on Heat right now.)
You may have endless ideas streaming through your head but little patience to see any of them through to the end, Gemini. Perhaps you're so busy jumping from one thought to the next that you don't take any of them far enough to know whether or not they're worth pursuing. Write thoughts down as they come to you, and go over them later when your mind is in a quieter state.
You may have endless ideas streaming through your head but little patience to see any of them through to the end, Gemini. Perhaps you're so busy jumping from one thought to the next that you don't take any of them far enough to know whether or not they're worth pursuing. Write thoughts down as they come to you, and go over them later when your mind is in a quieter state.
Today's celestial energy may be encouraging you to spin a few tall stories out of some relevant facts. Somehow you just can't bear to let your crush believe that you have led an ordinary life, as most of us have. Because you are already very enamored by them, you want them to think you are highly desirable and special - and by the end of your conversation they will!
Try to see two sides of every issue today. The cosmic energy may lead you to the mirror, where you may be tempted to be scrutinizing and unforgiving. Be gentle with yourself: remember that it is what you tell yourself, and not what others say, that most affects how you feel! And you feel good if you accept yourself as you are and do your bit to stay healthy. You may use this energy to recognize and appreciate what works in your life. If your legs work, use 'em!
Your overall confidence is solid today, so don't let this be shaken up by someone - probably a male - who takes an aggressive tone with you. Just because someone is being more assertive doesn't mean that he or she is right. Trust yourself.
Should you hold on, or let go? Get instant answers with a live psychic reading.Chat online now.
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The crypto industry was hit with its first major insider trading scandal on Thursday. The most interesting part of the case doesn't involve the parties who have been charged.
The Department of Justice announced the arrest of former Coinbase product manager Ishan Wahi on charges that he tipped off his brother, Nikhil Wahi, and friend, Sameer Ramani — both have also been charged — about new digital tokens that were about to be listed on the popular trading platform. That nonpublic information allowed the conspirators to buy up those tokens on other exchanges and flip them at a profit once their price jumped after hitting Coinbase's widely trafficked digital ecosystem, according to the authorities.
An accompanying civil case filed by the SEC posits that at least nine of the tokens that were traded by the alleged conspirators were investment securities — a designation that could have significant consequences for Coinbase because… it has never registered as a national securities exchange.
"Whether in equities, options, crypto assets, or other securities, we will vindicate our mission by identifying and combating insider trading in securities wherever we see it," said Carolyn Welshhans, acting chief of the SEC Enforcement Division's Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit, in a statement.
Other regulators, crypto industry advocates and watchdog groups are scratching their heads at what the SEC's complaint might mean for digital asset regulation moving forward. Congress has not passed legislation tailored to digital asset exchanges and there are – suffice it to say – differing opinions on the role of market regulators in policing token offerings.
Coinbase simultaneously pushed back on any implication that securities had been offered on its platform while also calling on the SEC to develop new rules that would allow it to do just that.
"No assets listed on our platform are securities, and the SEC charges are an unfortunate distraction from today's appropriate law enforcement action," Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong wrote in a blog post .
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Driving the day
A RECESSION ALARM IS RINGING ON WALL STREET — NYT's Joe Rennison: "Wall Street's most talked about recession indicator is sounding its loudest alarm in two decades, intensifying concerns among investors that the U.S. economy is heading toward a slowdown. That indicator is called the yield curve, and it's a way of showing how interest rates on various U.S. government bonds compare, notably three-month bills, and two-year and 10-year Treasury notes.
"Usually, bond investors expect to be paid more for locking up their money for a long stretch, so interest rates on short-term bonds are lower than those on longer-term ones. Plotted out on a chart, the various yields for bonds create an upward sloping line — the curve. But every once in a while, short-term rates rise above long-term ones. That negative relationship contorts the curve into what's called an inversion, and signals that the normal situation in the world's biggest government bond market has been upended."
ECB LIFTS RATES FOR FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE — From our colleagues in Europe: "The European Central Bank took a long-awaited step Thursday to raise interest rates in response to the record inflation that has inflicted a massive cost-of-living crisis across the region. By opting for half a percentage point, rather than the quarter percentage point it previously flagged, the bank sought to send a clear signal of its inflation-fighting resolve. Its decision came amid rising market jitters about Italy's fresh political crisis following Prime Minister Mario Draghi's resignation.
"The ECB has lagged most major central banks on countering inflation, which climbed to a record high of 8.6 percent in the eurozone in June. Thursday's 50-basis-point move — the first hike of that size in more than two decades — aligns the Frankfurt institution more closely with its counterparts, which have moved in 50- and 75-basis-point steps."
But some ECB officials were initially in favor of a smaller hike — Bloomberg's Carolynn Look and Jana Randow: "A small number of European Central Bank officials initially would have preferred a quarter-point increase in interest rates at Thursday's Governing Council meeting, according to people familiar with the debate. The official proposal made by Chief Economist Philip Lane was for a half-point step, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions were private. Officials ultimately supported that as they also agreed on a new instrument to prevent disorderly bond-market moves, the people said."
INFLATION FORCES CENTRAL BANKS TO DITCH MESSAGING TOOL — Reuters Sujata Rao and Dhara Ranasinghe: "If the U.S. Federal Reserve killed off forward guidance in June, the European Central Bank may have just hammered the final nail in the coffin of a tool officials had long used to provide monetary policy signals to financial markets. … The switch to what the ECB itself described as 'a meeting-by-meeting approach' is the latest warning to investors and traders who have watched policymakers from Australia to Switzerland to Sweden execute startling U-turns on policy signals they had sent only weeks earlier."
HOUSING MARKET CHILLS — AP's Ken Sweet, Michael Casey and Alex Veiga: "The Federal Reserve has aggressively raised short-term interest rates to fight inflation, which in turn helps push rates higher for credit cards, auto loans and mortgages. Rising mortgage rates have combined with already high home prices to discourage would-be buyers. Mortgage applications have declined sharply. Sales of previously occupied homes have fallen for five straight months, during what is generally the busiest time of year in real estate.
"The rate on a 30-year mortgage averaged around 5.54 percent this week, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac; a year ago it was close to 2.78 percent. The increase in rates is leaving buyers with some unwelcome options: pay hundreds of dollars more for a mortgage, buy a smaller home or choose to live in a less desirable neighborhood, or drop out of the market, at least until rates come down."
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR — WSJ's Rina Torchinsky: "New applications for unemployment benefits climbed again last week, reaching their highest point since late last year in a sign the tight labor market is slowly loosening. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, rose to a seasonally adjusted 251,000 in the week ended July 16 from 244,000 the week before, the Labor Department said Thursday. Last week's claims were above the 2019 prepandemic weekly average of 218,000, when the labor market was also strong, and at their highest since last November."
Fly Around
STOCKS END HIGHER — AP's Stan Choe and Alex Veiga: "Stocks on Wall Street closed higher Thursday, building on their winning week, as investors sifted through a deluge of news about the economy, interest rates and corporate profits.
The S&P 500 rose 1 percent after shaking off an early stumble, returning to its highest level in six weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also recovered from a midafternoon slide to end 0.5 percent higher, while the Nasdaq composite rose 1.4 percent as Tesla and technology stocks led the market."
DEMOCRATS' CONSOLATION PRIZE ON TAXES— From Pro's Brian Faler: "Democrats are poised to approve their first big tax break of this year — but it's not any of the ones they've spent so much time talking about. Their bid to expand the Child Tax Credit and beef up green energy breaks, not to mention their plans to raise taxes on the rich, are all dead. But they are on the verge of passing a special new $24 billion credit for the semiconductor industry, with legislation now on a glide path to President Joe Biden's desk."
INFLATION HITS BIG INSURERS' PROFITS — WSJ's Leslie Scism: "Big car, home and business insurer Travelers Cos. posted a 41 percent decline in second-quarter net income, as inflation has continued to drive up costs, including to repair and replace automobiles and pay for medical care of injured people. Allstate Corp., meanwhile, said inflation would worsen its coming second-quarter quarter results, in a Wednesday announcement that sent its shares down about 7 percent in early afternoon trading Thursday. Travelers stock was off about 2 percent. Both insurers said more premium-rate increases lie ahead in an effort to improve their bottom lines. Higher catastrophe costs and lower investment income also hurt the year-over-year comparison at Travelers."
DOW CHEMICALS FORECAST DISAPPOINTS — Reuters' Rithika Krishna: "Chemicals maker Dow Inc. projected third-quarter sales below market estimates on Thursday, blaming a global surge in inflation for a demand slowdown and sending its shares down 3 percent. The dour outlook could be a barometer of price pressures as Dow's chemicals are used in industries ranging from automobiles and food packaging to electronics."
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After hours on Wednesday, the company announced a corporate update and financial outlook. The company also announced a reduction in the nominal value of shares.
You can see in June ADXN gapped down from roughly $3.50 to around $2. That leaves a gap on the chart. Now, normally a big gap down is bad news … Especially for traders who buy and hold...
But for day traders, gaps can create opportunities.
After a stock gaps down, if it consolidates and grinds back up to the gap level, it can often mean the gap will fill. Meaning the stock will climb to the lows set before the gap.
And when a stock has news, that's added fuel that can help it break out of consolidation and fill the gap.
So why is a gap fill a strategy some traders use?
Think about this…
What's the bagholders dream?
To get back to breakeven. So the holders from above the gap won't sell in the gap. They want to break even.
And the people who bought below the gap won't sell, because they're all green.
And like a lot of trading patterns, they become self-fulfilling prophecies because traders believe in them.
But nothing in trading is guaranteed…
And the gap won't necessarily fill in one day — as ADXN showed us yesterday. So keep your expectations in check.
If you like this strategy and are looking for another potential gap-fill play, look at my Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) trade idea from the weekly watchlist. I think if it breaks $125, it could close the gap to $135 and potentially go even higher.
For higher-priced stocks like AMZN, remember the 'rule of 10.'
With many stocks crashing left and right, many people are having a difficult time growing their trading accounts right now.
But this coming Thursday July 28th at 8 p.m. ET…
Tim Sykes will reveal a strategy that's so powerful he believes traders have the potential to grow a $1,000 account into a $10,000 account in just the next 46 days!
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This particular company has been hard at work signing partnership deals to get their services integrated with some heavy hitters.
As a result, literally hundreds of millions of consumers could be using their services on a regular basis.
Their name is going to be EVERYWHERE.
And you can imagine what that's going to do to the stock price.
This is exactly the kind of long-term growth play you want in your portfolio during turbulent times: a solid company with massive growth potential.
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Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird after winning their fifth gold medals in Tokyo last summer. Photo: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird will share a basketball court for what is likely the final time tonight when Taurasi's Mercury host Bird's Storm (10pm ET, NBA).
Why it matters: Two of the greatest women's basketball players to ever live — friends who've been linked for more than two decades — may never compete against each other again. It's a historic night.
By the numbers: This is the 46th time they'll play each other in the regular season, tying the WNBA record for most meetings. Tonight is Taurasi's 500th game, joining Bird as the only members of that club.
Bird, 41, leads the rivalry 25-20 and is the league's all-time leader in assists. She's retiring at the end of the season.
Taurasi, 40, is the league's all-time leading scorer. She's a free agent at the end of the season and hasn't decided on retirement yet.
The big picture: The two hoops legends also won five Olympic gold medals together, the only basketball players to ever accomplish that feat.
What they're saying: "I'm starting to feel closure," said Taurasi, who first met Bird during her recruiting trip to UConn.
"It's a bit sad … but you know it's gonna be a moment where all those memories kind of go in your head and take you back."
"It'll be an end of an era on the court but it'll be the beginning of an era off the court," she added. "And we're excited for that, too."
2. ⚾️ Sandy Alcántara: A modern workhorse
Photo: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Sandy Alcántara is having the type of season that used to be the norm but has all but disappeared in modern baseball, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.
By the numbers: The Marlins' 26-year-old ace and NL Cy Young favorite, has gone at least eight innings nine times this year, five more than anyone else.
Naturally, he leads MLB with 138.1 innings pitched, putting him on pace for about 240, which would be the most since 2014.
He's dominating, too: His 1.76 ERA leads the NL, his 0.90 WHIP ranks second and his 5.3 WAR leads all players.
The big picture: Pitchers simply don't do this anymore. In 1979, they went at least eight innings 1,336 times. Last year? Just 112. A few factors are driving this evolution:
Analytics show that starters are far less effective their third time through the order, so managers tend to play the percentages and hand it to their bullpen.
Speaking of bullpens, have you seen relievers these days? No use keeping those weapons holstered while taxing the arms of starters.
Between the lines: So how is Alcántara, whose fastball averages 97.8 mph, bucking the trend? The answer starts with a wipeout changeup he honed to perfection in the offseason.
Rather than nibble around the edges of the plate in tight spots, he's throwing that changeup down the middle and daring batters to swing, resulting in more groundouts and deeper outings, per FiveThirtyEight.
He's also in the right situation, playing for a fringe playoff team that hasn't made a non-pandemic postseason since 2003 and is far better when he starts (12-7) than when he doesn't (31-42).
The bottom line: Alcántara is a man out of time, curbing decades of evolution to compose a season for the ages.
His next start comes Sunday in Pittsburgh.
3. 📉 The decline of All-Star Games
Data: Sports Media Watch; Chart: Baidi Wang and Simran Parwani/Axios
Fewer and fewer people are tuning in to watch All-Star Games across the Big Four sports leagues, Jeff writes.
Driving the news: MLB's Midsummer Classic drew a record-low 7.51 million viewers on Tuesday. And yet, that's still the largest audience among Big Four All-Star Games, all of which have seen their audiences dwindle over the past two decades.
🏒 NHL All-Star Game: Down 57.1% since 2002
🏀 NBA All-Star Game: Down 48.9% since 2002
⚾️ MLB All-Star Game: Down 48.7% since 2002
🏈 NFL Pro Bowl: Down 4.2% since 2002 (but down ~50% from the early 2010s peak).
Between the lines: Viewership for those leagues' championship series is also declining (outside of the Super Bowl), but the drop-off is less pronounced than it is for the All-Star Games. NBA Finals viewership, for example, is down 21% in that time.
The bottom line: With more viewing options, sports fans appear to be deprioritizing relatively meaningless — albeit fun and star-studded — exhibition games.
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🏈 Murray's millions: The Cardinals are giving QB Kyler Murray a five-year, $230.5 million deal ($46.1 million per year), with $160 million guaranteed. Only Aaron Rodgers ($50.2 million) makes more annually.
❤️ Bo steps up: Bo Jackson helped pay for the funerals of the 19 children and two teachers killed in the Uvalde school shooting, revealing himself as one of the previously anonymous donors who covered costs.
⚾️ Awesome gesture: Mets reliever Edwin Díaz, a second-time All-Star, forfeited his inning on Tuesday so that first-time All-Star David Bednar could pitch. The Athletic has the story.
⛳️ Chuck and LIV: Charles Barkley is considering joining LIV Golf as a broadcaster, NY Post's Andrew Marchand reports. He'll play in the pro-am portion of next week's event at Trump National in Bedminster, N.J.
⚽️ Six teams remain: Germany beat Australia, 2-0, to join England in the Women's Euro semifinals. Two more semifinalists will be determined this weekend (Sweden vs. Belgium, France vs. Netherlands).
5. 💵 Kirby Smart gets paid
Photo: Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images
Georgia's Kirby Smart has agreed to a new 10-year, $112.5 million deal that makes him the highest-paid coach in college football, ESPN reports.
The backdrop: Smart's historic deal — which has an average annual value of $11.25 million — comes on the heels of his peers signing their own enormous contracts.
Last winter: Michigan State gave Mel Tucker a 10-year, $95 million extension in November. The next month, LSU lured Brian Kelly with the same deal and USC lured Lincoln Riley with even more money.
Last summer: Alabama's Nick Saban signed an extension that will pay him an average of $10.6 million through 2028, and Texas A&M's Jimbo Fisher signed one that will pay him $90 million over 10 years.
Derek Jeter not doing it for you? You've got another option.
Now available: "Facing Nolan," a documentary about Hall of Fame flamethrower Nolan Ryan, arrived on streaming services this week ($19.99 on Apple TV, Prime Video, etc).
Between the lines: Ryan initially didn't want to make the film ("I'm not real comfortable talking about what happened in my career"), but his family convinced him to do it.
The result is essentially "a video memoir to his wife and their three children and seven grandchildren disguised as a baseball documentary," writes NYT's Scott Miller.
Among those interviewed: Pete Rose, George Brett, Rod Carew, Dave Winfield and Roger Clemens, who describe the sizzling sound of Ryan's fastball as being like "bacon in a frying pan."
Wild stat ... Ryan holds the MLB record for strikeouts (5,714) and no-hitters (seven), yet never won a Cy Young (six top five-finishes).
7. 🌎 The world in photos
Photo: Andrej Isakovic/AFP via Getty Images
EUGENE, Ore. — Shericka Jackson won the women's 200m in 21.45 seconds, the second-fastest time ever. Fellow Jamaican Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce won silver and Britain's Dina Asher-Smith took bronze.
HENDERSON, Nev. — Davante Adams and the Raiders opened training camp on Wednesday, two weeks ahead of their appearance in the Hall of Fame Game (vs. Jaguars on Aug. 4).
Jonas peddling into a sea of fans. Photo: Tim de Waele/Getty Images
HAUTACAM, France — Jonas Vingegaard all but clinched the Tour de France on Thursday, winning Stage 18 by over a minute to put him 3 minutes, 26 seconds ahead of two-time defending champ Tadej Pogačar.
Sydney McLaughlin. Photo: Sam Barnes/Sportsfile via Getty Images
The World Athletics Championships end on Sunday, and there are still 20 gold medals up for grabs. So far, only the U.S. (seven), Ethiopia (three), Jamaica (two) and China (two) have multiple golds.
Friday: American Sydney McLaughlin's attempt to yet again break her own 400m hurdles world record headlines tonight's slate (10:50pm ET, USA)
Saturday:Neeraj Chopra, the 2020 Olympic javelin gold medalist, is aiming to become India's first-ever world champion in any track and field event (9:35pm, NBC).
Sunday: American Athing Mu will try to break the 800m world record (1:53.28) set in 1983, the longest-standing individual world record in athletics (9:35pm, NBC).
More to watch:
🚲 Tour de France:Stages 19-21 (Fri-Sun, NBC/USA) … Ends Sunday.
French cyclists have won the Tour de France 36 times, more than any other country.
Question: Which country is second?
Hint: Shares a border with France.
Answer at the bottom.
10. 🥇 1 big building: Hayward Field Tower
Photo: Chinasports/VCG via Getty Images
The Tower at Hayward Fieldstands 10 stories and 188 feet tall, overlooking the cathedral of American track and field — and looming over this month's World Athletics Championships.
"This tower ... is almost unfathomable. It gleams on sunny afternoons. At night, it can be lit up, like the Empire State Building. It alternately resembles the world's largest ice cream cone, the world's tallest and shiniest vase or (more on this later) the world's largest joint."
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Good morning. First-time unemployment filings are ticking up. While they're not huge yet, they...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.
Good morning. First-time unemployment filings are ticking up. While they're not huge yet, they may be a sign of more trouble to come in the months ahead. Most aren't too worried about the numbers. After all, the number of total job listings still far exceeds the number of unemployed.
However, that trend is shifting as well. 47 out of 50 states reported a decline in help wanted ads in the past month. For June, job listings slid by 2.8 percent. Again, that's not huge. But combined with rising unemployment claims, it's clear that it may the end of the great resignation trend where workers were able to jump over to new jobs at higher pay.
This slowdown in the labor market may also cause the recent market rally to stall out, and potentially resume a downslide in the coming months. Traders shouldn't expect this bullish week to continue indefinitely.
The past few months have seen stocks move off their lows. Despite the daily swings in the market, the potential for a recession has been priced in. Some sectors have fared better than others during this downturn.
In the meantime, the market recovery of the past few weeks has been best for beaten-down tech plays. And one of the hardest hit places, cryptocurrencies, has technically entered into a new bull market. From its lows last week alone, Bitcoin is up nearly 25 percent.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), a major holder of Occidental Petroleum (OXY), continues to add to its stake in the company. The most recent pickup was a 242,241 share buy on Tuesday, representing a 0.13 percent increase in their holdings. The company paid $14.45 million for that stake.
That adds on to regular, consistent buying over the past few months. The conglomerate is now closing in on a 20 percent stake in Occidental.
Shares of casino giant Las Vegas Sands (LVS) are down about 28 percent in the past year. One trader is betting on a potential rebound in the coming months.
That's based on the October $40 calls. With 91 days until expiration, 7,891 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 125, for a 63-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $2.71 to make the trade.
In an effort to curb inflation, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates by 0.5 percent. That takes the rate from -0.5 percent to 0 percent. Economists were predicting a 0.25 percent rate hike to start. The move comes as the continent looks to contend with an energy shortage later in the year.
Initial unemployment claims came in at 251,000 for the week ending July 16th. That's up 7,000 from the week before, and is greater than expectations for 240,000. This marks the highest new initial claims since mid-November, and is a sign that moves to curb the economy are starting to show up in the job market.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage closed at 5.54 percent this week. That's a slight increase from the 5.51 percent rate last week, and is slightly below the 5.81 percent rate recorded back in June, a 13-year high. Rates still remain significantly higher than last year's read of 2.8 percent, and are likely to continue to trend higher as interest rates are set to continue to rise.
Amazon (AMZN) has rolled out delivery service in more than a dozen cities with a custom electric van built by Rivian Automotive (RIVN). The company has a goal of expanding to 100 cities by the end of the year, and to have 100,000 EV vans making deliveries by 2030.
Amazon (AMZN) has made a $3.9 billion bid to buy One Medical, a primary healthcare company. The company operates in a dozen US markets, and offers health benefits to employees at over 8,000 companies. The buy is part of a larger move Amazon has made into the medical services space in recent years.
S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
TSLA
9.781%
NUE
9.147%
DHR
9.074%
BIO
7.735%
BBWI
7.042%
BOTTOM
CCL
11.181%
UAL
10.173%
POOL
10.127%
DFS
8.925%
RCL
8.239%
Quote of the Day
The bulls seem to be coming back into the market now. We've seen pretty sharp rallies in tech, crypto and other risk assets over the past few days. Which is notable to us, because in an economy with some pretty notable weakness in it, you'd expect to be seeing other parts of the market performing well. But the animal spirits are back, at least for now.
- Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, on the recent rally in stocks, and why it may continue over the next few weeks.
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Good morning Wake-Up Watchlisters! While you're sipping that morning coffee you'll see stock futures fell Friday. A new list of corporate earnings included disappointing results from Snap, and that news sent other social media companies like Meta and Twitter reeling. Pinterest was also down.
As markets remain volatile, you'll want to make sure you're protecting your assets. One of our top strategies in The War Room involves hedge trades. We have a 90% win rate on hedge trades in 2022 and right now we're guaranteeing 322 winning trades for members in their first 12 months.
Here's a look at the top-moving stocks this morning.
Hanger (NYSE: HNGR)
Hanger is up 25.08% premarket after the medical devices company announced it has agreed to be taken private by healthcare investment firm Patient Square Capital. The deal is wroth about $1.25 billion. The agreement was unanimously approved by Hanger's Board of Directors.
DSS (NYSE: DSS)
DSS is up 18.92% premarket after the multinational company announced Global BioLife, a subsidiary of the company's wholly owned Impact BioMedical, executed a licensed agreement with ProPhase BioPharma for Global Biolife's Linebacker Portfolio. The portfolio contains two patented small molecule PIM kinase inhibitors with significant therapeutic potential.
This is an unprecented time of innovation in the medical industry, but there's another sector that's undergoing a rapid transforamtion - the electric vehicle sector. Right now there's a startup company Andy Snyder says could be 'The Next Tesla,' and it's currently trading for around $25.
Intuitive Surgical is down 11.92% premarket after its latest earnings report. The company came out with quarterly earnings of $1.14 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.16 per share. The quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -1.72%.
SIVB Financial (Nasdaq: SIVB)
SIVB is down 10.68% premarket after quarterly earnings came in at $5.60 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.68 per share. This compares to earnings of $9.09 per share a year ago. Overall, the quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -27.08%.
The 'El Cheapo' way to play earnings
With earnings season back in full swing, you're going to want to know how to play earnings the cheap way. Our Head Fundamental Tactician Karim Rahemtulla breaks down how to use options strategies to give yourself a chance at a big gain.
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THE NEXT CHAPTER—The House committee investigating the Capitol attack turned its attention to what came after the gruesome hours of Jan. 6 during the eighth public hearing on Thursday night.
As Kyle and Nick report , the hearing, which is expected to be the committee's final for now, made clear that the House panel is also focused on the two weeks after — and the evidence that Donald Trump spent his dwindling days in office resisting the reality that he lost to Joe Biden.
"I don't want to say the election is over," Trump said in outtakes from the evening of Jan. 7, which were played during Thursday night's hearing.
Members of the committee told POLITICO that they've been digging into the period after Jan. 6, looking for what the actions reveal about the attack. And Thursday night's hearing included clips from former officials discussing how to manage Trump's final days in office amid a swirl of discussion about the 25th Amendment.
Beyond Trump's actions, the committee has been poring over public remarks and details revealed in private depositions from Trump-world officials to try to draw a stark contrast between Trump's response to the attack and some of his advisors and allies.
On Thursday night they included a new video of congressional leaders, from a secure location on Jan. 6, urging then-acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller to clear the Capitol so that members of the House and Senate could return to counting Biden's Electoral College win.
In another clip former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told the committee in recorded testimony that while rioters smashed through police lines at the Capitol on Jan. 6, Trump asked aides for a list of senators to call as he continued to pursue paths to overturn his defeat. Nick and Kyle have more on the hearing here.
For a full recap of the hearing's biggest moments, catch up with Anthony, Jordain and the rest of the team who provided real-time updates over on Congress Minutesor follow us over on Twitter @politicongress .
SEE YOU IN SEPTEMBER— The committee wrapped up its final hearing—for now. Chairman Bennie Thompson and Vice Chair Liz Cheney made clear they will be back in September, driving the panel's work closer toward the November midterm elections. Thompson (who appeared by video from Covid quarantine) said that the committee "will reconvene in September to continue laying out our findings to the American people."
The committee has been receiving new information throughout their hearings, according to Cheney. The vice chair said that the committee will spend August, when the House is expected to be out of town, pursuing "emerging information on multiple fronts." Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) also teased that they "anticipate further testimony under oath and further new information in the coming weeks" related to the Secret Service.
STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .
GOOD MORNING!Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, July 22, where Marianne, Andrew and Jordain are combining their powers to (temporarily) take the helm while KTM is out for the day. Hit us up on Twitter at @marianne_levine , @AndrewDesiderio and @jordainc.
TRUMP 2024? GOP LEADERS WON'T GET IN THE WAY— Congressional Republicans aren't doing much to keep Donald Trump from making a third White House bid – and many plan to approach him the way they did in 2016: by allowing a crowded primary field to sort out who will be the GOP nominee. Of the more than 12 GOP leaders Olivia and Burgess spoke to, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) went the furthest, saying she supports Trump running in 2024 and would endorse him over other GOP candidates.
But there's a key difference between 2024 and 2016: Trump is now a known quantity. "He was more of a blank slate back then," said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who is eyeing a spot in Senate leadership next year. "As in any candidate, you pick up good and bad as you're serving. And so he's going to have that dimension that he didn't have before." As Trump mulls a presidential announcement ahead of the midterms, many Republicans are hoping he holds off, fearing he will weigh down the GOP's chances of retaking the House and Senate by making the midterms about himself. We've got the story here.
ZELDIN ATTACKED AT CAMPAIGN EVENT—Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), the GOP nominee for governor of New York, was attacked Thursday by a man with a knife at a campaign event. In a tweet shortly after the incident, Zeldin wrote: "Someone tried to stab me on stage during this evening's rally, but fortunately, I was able to grab his wrist and stop him for a few moments until others tackled him." He added that he and the other attendees are safe, and that his attacker is now in custody. A witness captured video of the attack. More here.
WH VS. PELOSI ON TAIWAN— It's become crystal clear that the Biden administration doesn't want Speaker Nancy Pelosi to travel to Taiwan next month. But the disagreement between the two camps is now spilling out into the open. Behind the scenes, White House and Pentagon officials were already quietly conveying their hesitations to the speaker's office, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions, even before Biden said Wednesday that the military "thinks it's not a good idea right now."
Pelosi on Thursday suggested the military might be worried about the Chinese shooting down her plane, but pushed back on the notion that she shouldn't travel to the island at a time of increasing tensions with Beijing. "It's important for us to show support for Taiwan," she said. Republicans are backing her up; here's what Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), ranker on House Foreign Affairs, had to say: "I don't always agree with her, but on this one I applaud it." Lara Seligman and Andrew have much more.
ICYMI (literally)—Democrats spent months haggling over President Biden's $550 billion infrastructure bill — but only 24 percent of voters are aware it's now a law, according to new polling by the center-left think tank Third Way and Impact Research shared first with Sarah.
Some Democrats lamented to POLITICO that the party didn't do enough to sell the legislation. Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) said Democrats "were so focused on passing the next thing, we forgot to tell people about it. And that's a huge mistake."
There's still time though, according to pollsters, who said that the trend could be reversed before this fall's midterms if the party can harness the right message.
A message from GE:
GE plans for three new industry-leading companies–GE HealthCare, GE Vernova, and GE Aerospace– which will mark the beginning of something new. Building off a 130-year heritage of innovation, these planned companies will amplify elevated missions for precision health & connected care, a cleaner future, and flight & defense. This new era will transform a world that works into a future that does too. Learn more.
RONJOHN COULD BACK SAME-SEX MARRIAGE BILL—Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), one of the most vulnerable GOP senators this midterm cycle, suggested to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he could support House-passed legislation that codifies marriage regardless of sexual orientation, ethnicity or country of origin. "Even though I feel the Respect for Marriage Act is unnecessary, should it come before the Senate, I see no reason to oppose it," Johnson said in a statement to the paper. When asked by POLITICO to clarify whether he would actually vote for the legislation, Johnson referred back to his statement.
For those keeping track at home, GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Rob Portman (Ohio), Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) are "yes" or viewed as likely yes votes. GOP Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters he thought it could potentially get the 10 GOP votes necessary to break a filibuster.
GET 'ER DONE — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is pushing for the chamber to prioritize the ratification of Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO ahead of the August break. In an interview with Andrew , McConnell said it was "absolutely essential" to get it done before the recess — putting pressure on Majority Leader Chuck Schumer as he navigates some rocky terrain ahead. Even though the NATO resolution will win north of 95 votes, it'll take time to make its way through the morass.
A hotline for a time agreement on the NATO resolution has cleared on the Democratic side, and the Foreign Relations Committee has transmitted its official report to the Senate floor. Senators hope this can get done next week. It's worth noting that the Senate is staring down a crowded calendar before the August recess, between this, wrapping up a semiconductor manufacturing bill, passing a party-line health care bill and potentially considering the House-passed same-sex marriage legislation.
DEMS' GUN GAMBLE—House Democrats are facing their (potentially) final week in town before a lengthy break and struggling to answer a crucial question: Do they have the votes to pass an assault weapons ban in a matter of days? Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told Jordain and other reporters that they are still working the vote, amid opposition from some in their own party.
Hoyer initially said it was his "expectation" that the bill would be on the floor next week; he then hedged and qualified it as a "maybe." Democrats are also looking at putting other police funding bills on the floor next week amid pressure from their frontliners. Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) is predicting he'll have the votes once the assault weapons ban is brought to the floor, but told Jordain he wasn't sure if that will be next week.
AUGUST PSA— House Democrats (and much of Washington) are waiting to find out if their Senate counterparts are going to be able to close a deal with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and pass a narrow bill focused on ObamaCare subsidies and drug negotiations. If they do, Hoyer during a back-and-forth with Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) that the House could have to come back in August. Hoyer stressed that he would try to delay a return until after the first two weeks of August, so lawmakers could spend time with their family before school starts.
A MILLEY-ON PROBLEMS — The nation's top military officer met on Wednesday with Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), the first and only Ukraine-born congresswoman, amid mounting concerns about her fervent criticisms of the Zelenskyy government. Andrew, Lara Seligman and Connor O'Brien scooped that the meeting took place in Spartz's Longworth office, and just a few days after Spartz was briefed by intelligence officials who said her claims had no merit. That hasn't deterred Spartz, though, from continuing to defend her accusations even as her fellow Republicans plead with her to cut it out.
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HUDDLE HOTDISH
HUDDLE HOTDISH
FLY ON THE WALL — Per CNN's Manu Raju , Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) was on the same elevator that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) was walking into when he said voting to codify same-sex marriage is a "stupid waste of time." Baldwin, who is gay, joked with Manu that "you probably would have loved to be on the elevator to see the exchange after," but declined to say whether she was offended by Rubio's comment. "I'm counting votes," Baldwin said.
Sidney Johnson is now press assistant for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). She most recently was a communications associate at S-3 Group.
THURSDAY'S WINNER: Bruce Mehlman correctly answered that 1978 (the 96th Congress) was the most recent year when the number of elected women to Congress decreased from the previous election? The number dropped from 23 to 17 women elected.
TODAY'S QUESTION from Bruce: How many bathrooms does the White House have?
The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com.
GE announces plans for three industry leading companies: GE HealthCare, GE Vernova, and GE Aerospace. Each with an elevated vision to lead us into the future. This will be a new era of precision health & connected care, a cleaner future, and flight & defense, built off of a 130 year-old heritage of innovation. Continuing to build a world that works and ensuring our future does too. Learn more.
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